Am I ready to go live?

[AAAintheBeltway]

I haven't read all the posts so forgive me if I am repeating someone else.

My experience is that 11 trades a day average is way too many. I believe you said your average per trade is $7, so that reinforces the idea that you are basically scalping noise.

I have offered this advice to many newbies here over the years, and generally get mocked for it. After all, they killed it on a sim. Yet I am still here and most of them are long gone.


Your results came in a period that, from my personal trading, I would call exceptionally favorable to futures day traders. It was not at all reflective of what you can expect going forward.

I believe you said you have a 25k account and use 8k per contract on your sim. I consider that very aggressive for an experienced trader. For a newbie it could be disaster. Honestly, my advice would be to divide your money in half and put half somewhere you cannot access for trading. Trade one contract with the remainder. Then if you lose it, which is highly likely, you can decide whether to continue, but you will have to make an affirmative decision to do so. Perhaps you are very successful. You will have lost the profits off a couple of contracts, which is unfortunate but not life altering.

I hope I don't come across as a dick but I have seen a lot of smart people get chewed up by this business. Good luck.

 

[volpri]

LOL @

Applying a scalping method (4 ES points risk is scalping) requires liquid instruments with tight bid-ask spreads. Micros are not good for scalping. The best futures contract for practicing live with less risk per trade would be the Osaka Nikkei 225 mini; it is as liquid as ES, it has tight spreads, its about 1/5 the size, and commissions are about 1/5 as well (unlike most other smaller contracts that rip the trader off with commissions on a relative basis). Just need to get subscribed to the Osaka exchange. Forex spot would be another great alternative (e.g. USDJPY), although the Nikkei's price action is more comparable to ES.

I suggested the micro as a means to test his psychological mettle. It won't be anywere close to ES in terms of trading opportunities or profits or losses but if he has trouble handling losses or handling wins (yes wins can mess you up too) then those flaws will show up in a micro also. He can get scalping opportunities in the micro but certainly not near as often as in the ES. But if he is going to jump in the ES doing 11 trades a day (and i don't care which system he uses) he is gonna get eaten alive unless he can develop the right psychological skills. IMO he doesn't need to jump into trading the ES just because he did a month of SIM. He probaally needs to see how he will react, with real money on the line, but not find out in the ES. Osaka Nikkei mini may be better. I don't know. I think he really should sim the NQ too. It is more directional than ES.

 

[Overnight]

...I think he really should sim the NQ too. It is more directional than ES.

IMHO, this is folly. If he is "used to" the movement of ES, the NQ will eat him alive. NQ is a psychotic instrument compared to the relative average quietude of ES when it comes to range.

 

[Oysteryx]

IMHO, this is folly. If he is "used to" the movement of ES, the NQ will eat him alive. NQ is a psychotic instrument compared to the relative average quietude of ES when it comes to range.

Always relative. IMHO for fading ES better, for breakouts and pullbacks NQ better. NQ is less liquid and more volatile, it chews through levels.

 

[Jdesey]

Always relative. IMHO for fading ES better, for breakouts and pullbacks NQ better. NQ is less liquid and more volatile, it chews through levels.

I agree. I never should have stopped trading NQ. Way more daily range than ES and the moves are more directional as has been mentioned. I am sure there are other assets that are similar. I was stuck on ES for no good reason and was closed minded to look at other trading instruments.

I am however a big believer that you trade only one asset at s time. You get to know it inside out. So I did stick to that

 

[volpri]

IMHO, this is folly. If he is "used to" the movement of ES, the NQ will eat him alive. NQ is a psychotic instrument compared to the relative average quietude of ES when it comes to range.

@Fedex...I am talking about testing his system out in the NQ. I am not talking about him trading the Nq live. The ES has alot of reversion. The NQ is more directional. His system may work better in it although i am not familiar with his system at all, so i don't know. I in no way meant for him to jump live in the NQ.

Imo there is no way he is ready for the ES AFTER 1 month on a Sim. He doesn't even know how he will react psychologically to the market. He could lose thousands trying to find put on the ES. Does he want to do that? I have been trading for shall i say many years and i can tell you there is no way he is ready to tackle the ES after a month on a SIM. But..i could be wrong. Maybe the new generation is way smarter?

But it is his money......his wife....he will answer to....as his account disappears way faster than he expected.

90% of traders problems is psychological..cognitive and emotional not their system. Newbies focus on the wrong thing. They think if they can just get the correct system...set of indicators...etc they will make it big in the markets. Not so. What did in Livermore? What did in Niederhoffer? What continued to do in Niederhoffer? To be fair what does in most of us?

 

[nakachalet]

As for paper trading for a longer period ( a little funny you should mention it ), my wife wants me to keep trying for another month to see....

hi doug

pls listen to your better half....

SHE ABSOLUTELY KNOWS, WHAT
MONEY IS, AND HOW RELEVANT TO LIFE
IT IS....

and I am absolutely serious.

if you are using 400 tics or 4 full points
AND NOT 4 TICS out of 100 tics in
a full point, or the 4 increments of a
full point as in NQ etc....

to buff your trading decision in long or short,

it seems to indicate that you really do not
quite know at this point of your learning
curve WHENCE OR AT WHICH
POINT IN THE PRICE CONTINUUM,
TO ENTER THE TRADE....?

yes?

another important point,

reduce your initial trading cap to
only about 5k, TO START....!

save the rest in a safe house, so you
could kick start again in 6 months or so,
in case someone steals your first batch of
the 5k investment.... LOL

if with your current setup, however good it may appear,
you can not apply it to either generate more income
or to protect your initial 5k,

how do you wish to protect the entire 25k....?

PLS DO NOT LISTEN TO ANY OF THOSE
OR OUR GOOD INTENTED TRADING FRIENDS
HERE OR THOSE PROFESSED SUCCESSFUL TRADERS
OF LONGIVITY THAT

A NEWBIE NEEDS ANYTHING MORE THAN
5K TO WET HIS/HER DIRTY FEET....!

believe you me, the second, third and/or fourth
kick start, will provide you with an entirely
renewed vision and insight.... exclaiming
why on earth, did I buy or sell at this price
continuum....

and with such a large stoploss....?

wishing you profitable trading
with much more precision....
in days to come,

and with much tighter stop like....

1 full point or LESS....

IF YOU ALLOW MORE THAN 100 TICS
OR ONE FULL POINT IN YOUR DAY TRADING
SETUP.... sorry, my friends, your setup
is not and can not yet be called with any
precision as yet....

I ought to kick myself for making
silly comment like that.... LOL

 

[speedo]

I had an economics professor who said.."If you want ten different opinions about a thing, ask ten different economists." These threads often operate on a similar principle. There are profitable traders who will offer their opinions based on their own experiences which may or may not have anything to do with your own. There will be others who offer opinions based on what they heard or read. Yet more are clueless but that does not stop them from offering advice. Moral of the story, there are some nuggets in here worth consideration but only you can determine your outcome as a trader.

 

[volpri]

@naka

I agree he doesn't need to start with 25,000. Start with 5000 and trade 1 contract if he must trade the ES. But I know don't know his method. It may require scaling in with more contracts?

 

[nakachalet]

doug

I even have a better idea

there are plenty of successful traders around here,

why not post your trading screen for everyone to
see,

those of us who have a moment or two, to rest
our sore eyes from our own multi-level monitors,

might come in momentarily to see what you and your
smart spouse are cooking....

and perhaps provide a pointer or two,

only if you so wish and so incline to expose
yourself and your ego and your trading setups
for us to enjoy....

what do you say, doug?