Am I missing anything obvious?

cesfx

cesfx

I understand that payoff charts are relative with calendars and diagonals.

Is there anything wrong with a structure like this?


Should I maybe worry about volatility contraction for the long legs?

even if the intention would be to be flat by short expiry?


Capture69.PNG
 
Vol drop. Price it to LTD and drop vols upside and keep vols flat on a move to your lower trough (vol corr). Looks OK. I don’t have my screens open but I will comment later if I have anything to add.
 
destriero said:
Vol drop. Price it to LTD and drop vols upside and keep vols flat on a move to your lower trough (vol corr). Looks OK. I don’t have my screens open but I will comment later if I have anything to add.
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Thank you destriero, I appreciate.

I will need to research and study on your post, as usual.

Ltd sounds like "Limited" in my head for now.... What does it stands for here?

The "Look ok" bit, is already a :D for me!
 
Last trading day. It looks good bc we have a NFP number in a few mins. So you’ll need a nice move to compensate the the vol-drop post NFP on D2 (Nov7 series). I see that you’re planning on covering today as the structure wouldn’t makes sense to double up into a long strangle into the weekend.

So yeah, you won’t get beat up but I’d expect that the Nov7 vols will drop a point,
 
cesfx said:
I understand that payoff charts are relative with calendars and diagonals.

Is there anything wrong with a structure like this?


Should I maybe worry about volatility contraction for the long legs?

even if the intention would be to be flat by short expiry?


View attachment 298777
More...

What would you mean by "volatility contraction"? You mean "volatility crush"? If this is what you mean, "volatility crush" is not something you can predict with a payoff charts. Payoff diagrams just show you what would your profit/loss of your option or option combo be at different price level of the underlying but it doesn't show you the probability of each of the price level happening. And "volatility crush" is always a threat especially for naked long option positions, yes. But given that the long strangle positions' expiry is next Monday you would have the weekend to hopefully give you some volatility to land you with some profit.

Ok for the short expiry of today, yes you wouldn't want SPX to move too much but because you have a straddle so when the price moves away from 3750 on either the call or put side, you are going to incur losses. Hopefully the losses would be covered by the premium that you have received from selling the straddle.

There is nothing wrong with the structure if you have taken. Overall, you have a net long strangle where you will lose the most amount of the money if SPX doesn't mean much, i.e. if it's above about 3708 or below 3728. As long as SPX move beyond these two break-even points on either call or put side, you will make money.
 
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TheDawn said:
What would you mean by "volatility contraction"? You mean "volatility crush"? If this is what you mean, "volatility crush" is not something you can predict with a payoff charts. Payoff diagrams just show you what would your profit/loss of your option or option combo be at different price level of the underlying but it doesn't show you the probability of each of the price level happening. And "volatility crush" is always a threat especially for naked long option positions, yes.

Ok for the short expiry of today, yes you wouldn't want SPX to move too much but because you have a straddle so when the price moves away from 3750 on either the call or put side, you are going to incur losses. Hopefully the losses would be covered by the premium that you have received from selling the straddle.

There is nothing wrong with the structure if you have taken. You have a net long strangle where you will lose the most amount of the money if SPX doesn't mean much, i.e. if it's above about 3708 or below 3728. As long as SPX move beyond these two break-even points, you will make money.
More...


You drop vols on the stress. You fool.
 
TheDawn said:
What would you mean by "volatility contraction"? You mean "volatility crush"? If this is what you mean, "volatility crush" is not something you can predict with a payoff charts. Payoff diagrams just show you what would your profit/loss of your option or option combo be at different price level of the underlying but it doesn't show you the probability of each of the price level happening. And "volatility crush" is always a threat especially for naked long option positions, yes.

Ok for the short expiry of today, yes you wouldn't want SPX to move too much but because you have a

There is nothing wrong with the structure if you have taken. You have a net long strangle where you will lose the most amount of the money if SPX doesn't mean much, i.e. if it's above about 3708 or below 3728. As long as SPX move beyond these two break-even points, you will make money.
More...
Yes thanks, I meant vol crush.
Didn't take the position, just trying to understand.
Although I have traded similar structures in the past.

I would love for SPX to fly away with a structure like this, because of the ratio, long tail.

I am not trying to predict the vol crush, just modeling to see the risks if that happens, and I think that is what destriero advice is about, if I understood at a glance. What to look for when modeling the structure.
 
destriero said:
Last trading day. It looks good bc we have a NFP number in a few mins. So you’ll need a nice move to compensate the the vol-drop post NFP on D2 (Nov7 series). I see that you’re planning on covering today as the structure wouldn’t makes sense to double up into a long strangle into the weekend.

So yeah, you won’t get beat up but I’d expect that the Nov7 vols will drop a point,
More...
Just saw these last posts, thanks.
I didn't consider NFP. I was just looking at the structure itself, I didn't take the trade.

Still interesting, I often look at short dated prices on a diagonal level. I like the long tail idea these days.
 
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