Surf, it has nothing to do with predicting. There is a cost involved in hedging. There is a cost involved in transporting commodities, storing commodities, refining them. There is a cost to money. There is a cost to holding a certain currency. There is an opportunity cost in holding risk. All these things are NOT in equilibrium nor will they ever be because these things do not generate the same cash flows or have the same amount of risk. If the marketplace priced them that way, there would be billions to be made on arbitrage.
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Altucher Tells The Truth About the Market
- Thread starter marketsurfer
- Start date
Surf, it has nothing to do with predicting. There is a cost involved in hedging. There is a cost involved in transporting commodities, storing commodities, refining them. There is a cost to money. There is a cost to holding a certain currency. There is an opportunity cost in holding risk. All these things are NOT in equilibrium nor will they ever be because these things do not generate the same cash flows or have the same amount of risk. If the marketplace priced them that way, there would be billions to be made on arbitrage.
Surf, it has nothing to do with predicting. There is a cost involved in hedging. There is a cost involved in transporting commodities, storing commodities, refining them. There is a cost to money. There is a cost to holding a certain currency. There is an opportunity cost in holding risk. All these things are NOT in equilibrium nor will they ever be because these things do not generate the same cash flows or have the same amount of risk. If the marketplace priced them that way, there would be billions to be made on arbitrage.
If the markets are able to be predicted, what would happen to them? I understand what you are saying, but it all assumes markets can't be predicted. In my thought, your model above ( the way things are now) will fall apart. surf
This business about markets being predicted and disappearing is based on markets as a video game. Ridiculous!
Stocks are issued to raise capital. Futures are sold to lock in price. Derivatives are all about risk management. Spot forex is required for trade, this leads to futures for risk management, etc, etc. These are fundamentals that underpin the existence of the markets.
The secondary markets are affected by changes, that does not mean the primary markets will disappear; and as long as there are primary markets, there will be secondary markets because what you want to sell/cash in others will want to buy. Might not be a video game but they will exist.
Stocks are issued to raise capital. Futures are sold to lock in price. Derivatives are all about risk management. Spot forex is required for trade, this leads to futures for risk management, etc, etc. These are fundamentals that underpin the existence of the markets.
The secondary markets are affected by changes, that does not mean the primary markets will disappear; and as long as there are primary markets, there will be secondary markets because what you want to sell/cash in others will want to buy. Might not be a video game but they will exist.
Hi Surf,
It's good to see that you're still here getting your satisfaction by railing against the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune. Perhaps you are a trend all by yourself?
Maybe if you'd just accepted that we were all right, you'd have been trading profitably by now.
It's good to see that you're still here getting your satisfaction by railing against the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune. Perhaps you are a trend all by yourself?
Maybe if you'd just accepted that we were all right, you'd have been trading profitably by now.
You forgot to realize that markets are humans. If you say you can predict what I will do, I will simply start doing it differently.
Every possible move you could make, I could game -- if I could predict the markets. If you could somehow see into the future, it wouldn't matter how different you did it, the future seer would already know. right? surf
It's good to see that you're still here getting your satisfaction by railing against the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune. Are you not a trend all by yourself?
Perhaps if you'd just accepted that we are all right you'd have been trading profitably by now.
Is this directed to me. kiwi? If so, what do you mean "slings and arrows of outrageous fortune"? it's an awesome soundbite, but can you explain it to me. Thanks!
This business about markets being predicted and disappearing is based on markets as a video game. Ridiculous!
Stocks are issued to raise capital. Futures are sold to lock in price. Derivatives are all about risk management. Spot forex is required for trade, this leads to futures for risk management, etc, etc. These are fundamentals that underpin the existence of the markets.
The secondary markets are affected by changes, that does not mean the primary markets will disappear; and as long as there are primary markets, there will be secondary markets because what you want to sell/cash in others will want to buy. Might not be a video game but they will exist.
If and when predicting the markets becomes possible, they will cease to exist. Still no one has showed why this isn't the case. Thanks!
Sorry, but are you daft? Primary markets exist based on fundamental needs, none of the principal players are troubled by how well you predict anything.
Sorry, but are you daft? Primary markets exist based on fundamental needs, none of the principal players are troubled by how well you predict anything.
There would be no stock issued if i could predict its movements thus corner the market.