Altucher- Bears ae dead wrong, S&P to 1300 in 2010

i think you are slightly twisting facts. Why do I even sound as if you are talking about facts? My first back tests, which lie years back and where as elementary in nature as you could possibly imagine, have shown that you engage in massive negative edge when trading against trends based on RSI, CCI, even DeMark makes for a negative expectation, let alone fading simple MA cross overs. Following trends blindly on a naive cross over at least makes you at least break even over a longer period of time, proving that it pays to rather follow trends than fading them (all before transaction costs). So, I recommend you also test things for yourself rather than making blanket statements.

Of course most funds dont just trade on MA crossovers but have completely different triggers and additional filters. Not sure why you disparage my post as if I promoted MA crossover trend following strategies.



Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

I'm still long AAPL. Why did you think otherwise? If a long is based on valuation and market action, then a steady rally of around 10% is hardly a sign to exit, let alone reverse and go short.

My comments were just that jumping on every single trend is not a great money-making strategy - if it were, then a simple MA crossover system would significantly outperform, and would be literally free money. Therefore blanket trend-following doesn't have any particular edge, and thus fading trends does not put the odds massively against you. Selective trend-following can indeed work well, I agree, but so can selective reversal trading, as many renowned value investors, relative value players, and global macro traders have proven.
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Quote from noddyboy:

Sigh. 20 days in a row where the dow has failed to rally 1%. So bullish if you are a contrarian...
More...



More than 40 days where the SPX has failed to drop at least 1%!!!!!!
 
VIX is LOW its time to go!!!!


VIX is high its TIME TO BUYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!



:p :p :p :p :p



hmmmm where do you think it is?

Maybe 15-16 is high when the bulls probably believe the VIX can get into the low single digits.


:p :p :p :p :p
 
And on another positive note, transports to indicate broader rally!!!!

I have never seen so many positive articles since 2007.



Dow Transports Indicate Broader Rally: Charts
Published: Wednesday, 14 Apr 2010 | 6:26 AM ET
Text Size
By: CNBC.com

The Dow Transport Index is set for a rally toward 4,750, a move that indicates a rise for stocks across the board, Roelof van den Akker, technical analyst at ING Commercial Banking said Wednesday.

The Dow Transports traded around 4,500 late last week and this suggests "further upside potential," van den Akker said.

"We could easily see a test of 4,750 in the coming days to weeks," he said.

"We should consider the Dow Transport as a leading indicator for the other equity markets as well," he said. "If this Dow Transport is the leading indicator for the equity markets, then we should expect that equities should rally further."

"This might be the last move up before we could see a top and a correction," he added. "So sell on strength."

The downward trend in the euro changed on Monday after the European Union agreed on an emergency aid package for Greece, van den Akker said. The euro is now trading in a sideways trend, he added.

"The sideways pattern may result in a bottom formation" for the euro, van den Akker told CNBC.

If it reaches the horizontal resistance level of $1.38 versus the dollar, the euro could develop "a higher bottom of $1.35-$1.36" and rise back above $1.38 to $1.4275, he added.
 
Out of 31 trading days 7 have been down since March 1, 2010.

Market has been up 77% of the time since March 1, 2010.




Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close*
13-Apr-10 119.62 120.04 119.00 119.83 125,043,600 119.83
12-Apr-10 119.70 120.05 119.56 119.74 110,202,600 119.74
9-Apr-10 119.02 119.60 118.80 119.55 132,705,700 119.55
8-Apr-10 117.95 118.97 117.60 118.77 158,497,400 118.77
7-Apr-10 118.80 119.36 117.81 118.36 184,473,400 118.36
6-Apr-10 118.42 119.25 118.29 119.04 110,205,700 119.04
5-Apr-10 118.25 118.84 117.92 118.76 105,643,500 118.76
1-Apr-10 117.80 118.25 117.10 117.80 161,093,400 117.80
31-Mar-10 116.95 117.52 116.61 117.00 160,945,300 117.00
30-Mar-10 117.46 117.83 116.91 117.40 145,688,800 117.40
29-Mar-10 117.17 117.53 116.69 117.32 134,457,800 117.32
26-Mar-10 116.87 117.42 116.12 116.58 205,641,400 116.58
25-Mar-10 117.63 118.17 116.51 116.65 223,396,300 116.65
24-Mar-10 116.97 117.43 115.58 116.84 196,072,600 116.84
23-Mar-10 116.76 117.51 116.38 117.41 182,941,600 117.41
22-Mar-10 115.31 116.80 115.24 116.59 184,477,800 116.59
19-Mar-10 116.96 117.29 115.52 115.97 226,559,800 115.97
18-Mar-10 117.11 117.27 116.57 117.04 196,509,100 117.04
17-Mar-10 116.76 117.48 116.42 117.10 177,468,100 117.10
16-Mar-10 115.81 116.52 115.49 116.41 168,673,000 116.41
15-Mar-10 115.26 115.57 114.60 115.49 146,816,800 115.49
12-Mar-10 115.95 115.97 115.14 115.46 162,074,800 115.46
11-Mar-10 114.70 115.48 114.35 115.45 160,791,100 115.45
10-Mar-10 114.51 115.28 114.41 114.97 186,088,800 114.97
9-Mar-10 113.93 114.99 113.87 114.46 154,556,700 114.46
8-Mar-10 114.26 114.52 114.07 114.27 114,631,200 114.27
5-Mar-10 113.37 114.34 113.10 114.25 176,118,800 114.25
4-Mar-10 112.45 112.80 112.03 112.64 135,770,400 112.64
3-Mar-10 112.49 112.97 112.02 112.30 150,785,000 112.30
2-Mar-10 112.37 112.74 112.00 112.20 160,992,400 112.20
1-Mar-10 111.20 112.00 111.17 111.89 147,709,700 111.89
 
I can certainly say that if the market was down 75% from its highs and continued to drop off a cliff they would do everything possible to keep it afloat, even if it was down 22 out of 30 days this past month and a half they probably would have injected trillions worth of stimulus to prop up stocks.
 
Quote from noddyboy:

Sigh. 20 days in a row where the dow has failed to rally 1%. So bullish if you are a contrarian...
More...

well maybe it will be up 1% today. If contarians like me get it right.
 
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