Altucher- Bears ae dead wrong, S&P to 1300 in 2010

[zboy2854A]

Quote from Trader666:

I base it on reality as opposed to you relying on your guru's opinion. A child graphing the U.S. Dollar index and foreign markets on the same axis would be able to see it's a coincident indicator at best, NOT a leading indicator. Time series analysis confirms it.

I guess you see what you want to see then. Facts are stubborn things, they don't need you to believe them for them to be true. The facts are that during every era of stagnation the U.S. Dollar index has historically been one of several leading indicators against the U.S. equity market. You can remain ignorant of this all you like, it doesn't affect me in the least.

LOLOL! The fact that you rely on the forecasts of a guru is laughable and pathetic. FACT is that NOBODY knows what's going to happen and basing your buy and sell decisions on a guru's market prognostications is a sucker's game. But since you're a sucker, you can't see that. Far better, as someone already said here, to pick individual stocks. If you're so sure of yourself, why aren't you betting the farm on out-of-the money index puts? Or hasn't your guru recommended that yet?

Firstly, the guy I linked to is one of several analysts I read, all of whom have a stellar track record, and all of whom are in complete agreement now. Secondly, the fact that you think that nobody knows what's going to happen in the big picture reveals that you are simply ignorant about the right indicators and information one can use to accurately predict major trends before they occur. Or do you believe that being able to call the collapse of 2008 and the rally of 2009 before they occurred just dumb luck? I guess you also believe in the tooth fairy.

And yes, I have in fact begun the process of gradually laddering into long dated index puts.

But anyway, I want to thank you for your response. You reminded me perfectly of why I left this forum the first time, and why I won't make the same mistake of returning again. Too many perma-bears, perma-bulls, Monday morning quarterbacks, or fools like you who prefer to remain ignorant and cling to their dogma. At least I can say I tried one last time. So I'll once again take my leave and do what I do best, increase my account balance and ignore the noise. You can continue this argument with yourself if you like. Bye.

 

[chipmunk]

see this is B*S*. I made a lot of money from 2003 - 2007 Going long stocks like TZOO, TASR, HANS, TIE, NTRI,CROX,DRYS

so why am I bothered about your cyles within cyles? Same with March 2009.....should I have kept out? When the market turns again....I'll simply go short or get out again.

WHY oh why....do you guys need to think you are smarter than the markets? WTF am i doing here wasting time again????

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That is correct. But I'm talking about the larger secular bear market. The current era of stagnation began in 2000 and will not end for at least another 5 to 10 years based on historical standards (unless of course you again wish to argue against yourself that "this time its different). The bull market from 2003 to 2007 was a cyclical bull market within the context of a long term secular bear market, just as the historic rally from last year through now was yet another cyclical bull in a secular bear. If you look at any era of stagnation and secular bear markets (1929-1945, 1965-1982), you find that there are several cyclical bull runs that occur. This time is no different. In other words, neither March 2003 nor March 2009 were the final bottoms for this era of stagnation.

 

[chipmunk]

Get over your-self. The trend is up....go with it. Have you been shouting "suckers rally" for a year now? How much $$'s did that make you? It's crazy.....people have opinions and stick to them.

This is crap....

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I base it on reality as opposed to you relying on your guru's opinion. A child graphing the U.S. Dollar index and foreign markets on the same axis would be able to see it's a coincident indicator at best, NOT a leading indicator. Time series analysis confirms it.

 

[chipmunk]

MAn........isn't that what any trader worth his salt does? W.T.F. is this? So why waste 1 minute trying to call market tops and bottoms if you then point out what any decent trader should be doing..FOLLOWING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This is soooooooooooooooo annoying.


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So yes, going long in 2003 was the correct course of action. Then flipping to short in 2007-2008 was correct, going long last year, and now once again going short is the correct course of action. And probably some time around 2012 or so it will once again be time to go long again for the next cyclical bull, and so on until the current era of stagnation ends near the end of this decade.

 

[Scataphagos]

Quote from chipmunk:

MAn........isn't that what any trader worth his salt does? W.T.F. is this? So why waste 1 minute trying to call market tops and bottoms if you then point out what any decent trader should be doing..FOLLOWING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This is soooooooooooooooo annoying.


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So yes, going long in 2003 was the correct course of action. Then flipping to short in 2007-2008 was correct, going long last year, and now once again going short is the correct course of action. And probably some time around 2012 or so it will once again be time to go long again for the next cyclical bull, and so on until the current era of stagnation ends near the end of this decade.

HUBRIS! ON IGNORE.

 

[asiaprop]

to keep the facts straight, NOBODY correctly predicted the 2008 crisis at the right timing with certainty. Those who saw it coming were obviously in the dark when exactly. There are tons who said there will be a collapse in the housing markets, many of those were years early in their calls. Those few who came close by a few months were the lucky ones (out of one million coin toss experiments one will with high certainty result in 10 straight heads, nobody knows which one its gonna be). Even Paulson bet the farm and was luckily right on the timing otherwise it could have easily ended his career. Look at all those who tried to short Japanese government bonds for years and each time they lost the bet.

By simple logic there is NO indicator and no combination of indicators which nails/nail a turning point most of the time otherwise everyone would use them. Or do you count yourself to be one of the few who found the holy grail? Markets are way too dynamic and ever changing to make it worthwhile to ever invest a dime to find such indicators.

Therefore it does not pay at all to try to predict markets. Why do you think SAC pays millions in brokerage, because they are able to predict markets? Why do you think Renaissance invested millions into the top of the line IT equipment and developed low latency trading algorithms. They are able to predict markets? Maybe the next tick but there is a reason they did not find anything in regards to predicting major turning points in global markets: There is zero edge (a negative edge including transaction cost) in doing so.

Quote from zboy2854A:

I guess you see what you want to see then. Facts are stubborn things, they don't need you to believe them for them to be true. The facts are that during every era of stagnation the U.S. Dollar index has historically been one of several leading indicators against the U.S. equity market. You can remain ignorant of this all you like, it doesn't affect me in the least.



Firstly, the guy I linked to is one of several analysts I read, all of whom have a stellar track record, and all of whom are in complete agreement now. Secondly, the fact that you think that nobody knows what's going to happen in the big picture reveals that you are simply ignorant about the right indicators and information one can use to accurately predict major trends before they occur. Or do you believe that being able to call the collapse of 2008 and the rally of 2009 before they occurred just dumb luck? I guess you also believe in the tooth fairy.

And yes, I have in fact begun the process of gradually laddering into long dated index puts.

But anyway, I want to thank you for your response. You reminded me perfectly of why I left this forum the first time, and why I won't make the same mistake of returning again. Too many perma-bears, perma-bulls, Monday morning quarterbacks, or fools like you who prefer to remain ignorant and cling to their dogma. At least I can say I tried one last time. So I'll once again take my leave and do what I do best, increase my account balance and ignore the noise. You can continue this argument with yourself if you like. Bye.

 

[asiaprop]

so true.

Quote from chipmunk:

MAn........isn't that what any trader worth his salt does? W.T.F. is this? So why waste 1 minute trying to call market tops and bottoms if you then point out what any decent trader should be doing..FOLLOWING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This is soooooooooooooooo annoying.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
So yes, going long in 2003 was the correct course of action. Then flipping to short in 2007-2008 was correct, going long last year, and now once again going short is the correct course of action. And probably some time around 2012 or so it will once again be time to go long again for the next cyclical bull, and so on until the current era of stagnation ends near the end of this decade.

 

[Trader666]

Oh please... drop the facade. You've obviously never taken a quantitative look at the relationship from your puffery which doesn't surprise me, given how you outsource your thinking to your gurus.

Quote from zboy2854A:

I guess you see what you want to see then. Facts are stubborn things, they don't need you to believe them for them to be true. The facts are that during every era of stagnation the U.S. Dollar index has historically been one of several leading indicators against the U.S. equity market. You can remain ignorant of this all you like, it doesn't affect me in the least.

Quote from Trader666:

I base it on reality as opposed to you relying on your guru's opinion. A child graphing the U.S. Dollar index and foreign markets on the same axis would be able to see it's a coincident indicator at best, NOT a leading indicator. Time series analysis confirms it.

 

[Trader666]

Guruboy, your ignorance is astounding so I'm glad your gurus can see the future and they're in synch because you need them!

Let me know when you and they pass Warren Buffett on the Forbes list because he doesn't believe in using "the right indicators and information to accurately predict major trends before they occur" either, as this excerpt from his 1994 letter to shareholders makes clear:

"We will continue to ignore political and economic forecasts, which are an expensive distraction for many investors and businessmen. Thirty years ago, no one could have foreseen the huge expansion of the Vietnam War, wage and price controls, two oil shocks, the resignation of a president, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a one-day drop in the Dow of 508 points, or treasury bill yields fluctuating between 2.8% and 17.4%. But, surprise - none of these blockbuster events made the slightest dent in Ben Graham's investment principles. Nor did they render unsound the negotiated purchases of fine businesses at sensible prices. Imagine the cost to us, then, if we had let a fear of unknowns cause us to defer or alter the deployment of capital. Indeed, we have usually made our best purchases when apprehensions about some macro event were at a peak. Fear is the foe of the faddist, but the friend of the fundamentalist. A different set of major shocks is sure to occur in the next 30 years. We will neither try to predict these nor to profit from them. If we can identify businesses similar to those we have purchased in the past, external surprises will have little effect on our long-term results… Stock prices will continue to fluctuate – sometimes sharply – and the economy will have its ups and down. Over time, however, we believe it is highly probable that the sort of businesses we own will continue to increase in value at a satisfactory rate."

P.S. have you thought about studying the "teachings" of Jack Hershey?

Quote from zboy2854A:

Firstly, the guy I linked to is one of several analysts I read, all of whom have a stellar track record, and all of whom are in complete agreement now. Secondly, the fact that you think that nobody knows what's going to happen in the big picture reveals that you are simply ignorant about the right indicators and information one can use to accurately predict major trends before they occur.

 

[MKTrader]

Quote from failed_trad3r:

Buffett was only 5 month to early... something to think about.. 5 months from the bottom. That's crazy...

Why crazy? I don't know everything he invested in, but a 5%-7% correction puts the major indexes near their early Oct. 08 levels. It's a little early to say if that was really a good call.

Plenty of others jumped in Oct. 08, too. Anyone who believed in buying unusually large dips tried to play it on the long side. The dumb money sold (smart money was out way before then).