Altucher- Bears ae dead wrong, S&P to 1300 in 2010

guys, you are thinking way too logical. Thinking the rally has a blow off top at 1300 is too logical. You need to think illogical. We won't see a blow-off top untill 1500-1600 or so


and what the heck?? only the nasdaq had a blowoff top and that was in a parabolic rise. if we top it will be a long process, at least 6 months. fast massive shorting profits (800 points in a year) are gone for the moment..

also, what if we do get to 1300?? if we get there and it tops thats 1300 of potential profit compared to 1180 points of potential profit now. a smart bear is bullish right now, as that increases his profit when shits hits the fan.:p


wait until the real-estate bubble in china blows... right now its still going strong... dont short a bubble.. short AFTER the bubble;. china will print money to re-inflate and then the printing wars will ensue. It's crazy to think we won't see S&P new highs 1600 when you know this...

this is the bailout bubble, and china is yet to use it printing power... more bailouts certainly to come... dubai bailout, greece bailout, and were at year highs
 
Quote from Vishnu:

The fed basically stopped buying mortgages a quarter go and yet yields are still at lows (even though the official buying just stopped there is no evidence they were doing significant buying the past 3 months).

And actually, all the employment numbers are suggesting that inventory rebuild is having an effect: workweek hours are up, temp workers are up, parttime workers are up - all precursors to fulltime employment. This is the same playbook that occurred in 2003.

Housing: Case-Shiller index has been up for the past 6 months in a row. As Shiller states, housing prices trend and even though, of course, anything can happen there's no reason to believe this time will be different.

Debt: Personal savings rates are positive (as opposed to negative, where they were at the peak in 2007). And so far there hasnt been any correlation between national debt and the stock market (if anything, they are positive correlated, like in the 80s).
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That was two business days ago. Give it a week or so, man. Sheesh. Secondly, rates are still at near zero. The Fed is propping this up and they know it. Most know it. I'm rather shocked you don't.
 
Quote from Vishnu:

Maybe you're right. But consumer spending has been ticking up.
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so what....

the average hourly earnings component of the jobs report illustrates a negative wage increase... and wages are a key piece of inflation data. Not to mention that the report states the average hours worked per week were at the high side of the estimate...
So, the consumer is actually earning less on more hours worked. Which means, rates aren't going anywhere, which is why the market will continue to rise.

Borrow at zero and invest. The button is throbbing.

We will get a correction when the M/M average hourly earnings numbers start to trend up, regardless of the jobs created.

B
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

This only works so long as the leverage game continues. In my opinion, it is THAT game that is near the end. And then you might just never see a Dow 14000 print again in your lifetime if no one is allowed to be levered to any significant degree.
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why should that be that one is not allowed to be levered to any significant degree? every generation more or less repeats the same mistake of the previous generation including excessive leverage.
 
At your link for Kaplan's latest prognostication, he starts out with:

The U.S. dollar index is one of the most reliable leading indicators for global equity indices. Today's surge in the greenback to its highest point in more than ten months has very bearish implications for stock markets worldwide. --Steven Jon Kaplan

This is flat out WRONG. First, the U.S. dollar index is a coincident indicator at best and second, current levels are not very high despite being near the top of a 10 month range.

Your certainty that it's "lights out" after possibly "one final orgiastic blow off top" is delusional. FACT is, neither you nor Kaplan (nor anybody else) has a clue.

Quote from zboy2854A:

Now, to show you how it's done, here's True Contrarian's Steven Jon Kaplan's letter from September 7, 2008, just days before the collapse began, calling the collapse:
http://truecontrarian.com/08_09_07.htm

Here's from Feb 16, 2009 calling the rally before it happened:
http://truecontrarian.com/09_02_16.htm

And here's him from March 8, 2009 re-confirming his call for the most powerful rally since the Great Depression, just two days after the markets had bottomed:
http://truecontrarian.com/09_03_08.htm

And now? Well, let's just say look out below. http://truecontrarian.com/

Now, is it possible that this rally continues up to 1200, 1250 or even 1300 before it ends and the bear reasserts itself? Sure. Given how hyped and manipulated this rally is now at its end, it's perfectly possible to see one final orgiastic blow off top. But make no mistake, it won't be based on any of your so-called "fundamentals", and then it's lights out.
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ha, so true! There will always be at the very least 100 "forecasters" (= people who dont make money trading but talking), 50 of which recommend longs, 50 of which shorts and that for various reasons. Of of those when looking back there were 5 or so who also had the timing right. Skill? No, pure coincidence, in almost all cases. So, its like you see someone betting on on head or tail and after he got it right 3 or 4 times in a row you all run to that guy and listen attentively what he has to say about his next pick.

If one really has a passion for this job he/she would have tested long time ago whether it pays to put on positions before market confirmations. I have found that probabilities are hugely stacked up against your favor by betting against market trends. In that I am overall in cash (for 3 weeks now) and live a very boring life right now until I either see another surge on the way up or a catalyst that causes markets to mark a turning point. Why do any of you guys even listen to those figures such as Kaplan or Altbucher, all you need is listen to the markets. You will miss some points off tops or bottoms so what? You will at least always trade with favorable risk reward ratios.

Altbucher I think "still" got the market direction right, at least I dont yet see a reason to massively short, but most of his arguments are flawed. Inventory Buildup is a very childish way to describe anything that has been going on so far. I guess he picked it because nobody else did, and to get to speak on CNBC you need to present "unique" angles. ;-)


Quote from Trader666:

At your link for Kaplan's latest prognostication, he starts out with:

The U.S. dollar index is one of the most reliable leading indicators for global equity indices. Today's surge in the greenback to its highest point in more than ten months has very bearish implications for stock markets worldwide. --Steven Jon Kaplan

This is flat out WRONG. First, the U.S. dollar index is a coincident indicator at best and second, current levels are not very high despite being near the top of a 10 month range.

Your certainty that it's "lights out" after possibly "one final orgiastic blow off top" is delusional. FACT is, neither you nor Kaplan (nor anybody else) has a clue.
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Quote from asiaprop:



Its all gonna be about
a) consumer spending (mostly driven by unemployment, interest rates, credit conditions)
b) budget deficits
c) inflation and interest rates
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Don't forget corporate earnings, the most important factor.
 
they are all derived from the above. No corporate earnings without consumer spending and an environment where corporates can finance their operating expenses at rates more attractive than their internal rate of returns.

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

Don't forget corporate earnings, the most important factor.
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