Althucher guesses: trend funds to disappear within the next 10 years...

Quote from marketsurfer:

this thread is going nowhere fast. you guys are arguing with a fund manager who is doing what you only dream about. vishnu runs a successful fund in NYC, plus is connected with the leaders in the business. he knows what he is talking about--- definitely not a armchair quarterback like some of you......


surfer :D :D
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Good Lord.

I would be embarrassed to have an acolyte of my own this obsequious.
 
"Althucher guesses: trend funds to disappear within the next 10 years... "

Maybe some will fall by the wayside. With commodity complex rocking and global bonds "trending" down nicely I am amazed that some so-called trend followers have done so badly this year. I am guessing that their timeframes are too short and they have been whipped by the slightest countermove.

But on the other hand there are those funds with sufficiently long term horizons that have avoided being whipped around and have profited handsomely in recent months.

The test will come when we see sustained counter-trend moves...
 
I still can't see what has caused the drawdowns of those big trend following funds mentioned in this thread...metals, oil, and most commodities have rallied for 5 or so years...equities also has rallied w/o much of a correction...

As I understand, these funds are in for the longer-term trends so I doubt they trailed the stops very close as to get chopped around...

Can someone enlighten me on this?
 
Quote from lynx2004:

I still can't see what has caused the drawdowns of those big trend following funds mentioned in this thread...metals, oil, and most commodities have rallied for 5 or so years...equities also has rallied w/o much of a correction...

As I understand, these funds are in for the longer-term trends so I doubt they trailed the stops very close as to get chopped around...

Can someone enlighten me on this?
More...

am sure marketsurfuer has all da answer for ya :p
 
Quote from lynx2004:

I still can't see what has caused the drawdowns of those big trend following funds mentioned in this thread...metals, oil, and most commodities have rallied for 5 or so years...equities also has rallied w/o much of a correction...

As I understand, these funds are in for the longer-term trends so I doubt they trailed the stops very close as to get chopped around...

Can someone enlighten me on this?
More...

Most of the trend funds are having a great year. Some are exploding to the upside as we speak. Quadriga, the red headed step child of ET, has blasted away to new all time highs. I don't know how John Henry is doing now. Funny how all these trend funds were written off at the beginning of this thread and now they are all having record years. When will people learn?
 
they were not good at identifying trend. simple as that.

Quote from lynx2004:

I still can't see what has caused the drawdowns of those big trend following funds mentioned in this thread...metals, oil, and most commodities have rallied for 5 or so years...equities also has rallied w/o much of a correction...

As I understand, these funds are in for the longer-term trends so I doubt they trailed the stops very close as to get chopped around...

Can someone enlighten me on this?
More...
 
i think u may be limiting yourself to technical analysis approach via price and chart. actually, there is trend seeking that is based on speculation of fundamentals (ie global oil demand). here, price is confirmation of speculation.. and not the determining factor to establishing a position.

i'll tell you what, gold jewelry has come back in style.. a trend. watch the jewelry retailers into christmas.



Quote from marketsurfer:

the primary issue in the trend debate is the ability to test for trends. ofcourse anyone can see trends on a chart showing past price changes---however, seeing these perceived trends does little to assist the trader in entering positions. i have never seen any price series that predicts the next series in any greater probability than chance. my friend and colleague victor niederhoffer has done numerous studies that confirm that there is no edge in trend following. you can listen to the statistical tests performed by experts in the field, or to anecdotal evidence of the supposed great trend followers presented by people who write about such things..... it's up to you.

for those of you with further interest, here's a little interview i did with niederhoffer regarding this subject. it's a good overview of his philosophy of destroying market myths with the scientific method.


http://www.dailyspeculations.com/vic/goodboy_interview.html


enjoy,

surfer
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several years ago, jim rogers identified a commodities trend. he did not base this on simple price sequence.

u are barking up the wrong tree by pursuing trend by price alone.
 
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