Althucher guesses: trend funds to disappear within the next 10 years...

Quote from Maverick74:
I assume this was the author's attempt at a very poor joke. I will say this again, the three names mentioned earlier collectively made over 10 billion dollars the last decade. Perhaps closer to 25 billion.
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You know, you have a nice big post here criticizing all the points in my post and yet every point you make is off. For instance - "25 billion" !? How can I take the rest of your post seriously? You're off by maybe a factor of 10-100, particularly considering when you add back recent losses.

All I'm saying is that trend following as an investable strategy has pretty much failed in the past 2 years. Yes, there are exceptions but the main players are largely suffering through their worst drawdowns ever. Will they come back? Who knows. But I'd rather focus on strategies with a little more staying power instead of relying on the myth that "the trend is your friend". With friends like that...
 
for those of you who don't know what book we are talking about--- it's Altucher's latest "Super Cash" The New Hedge Fund Capitalism. In the sea of repetitive and so-so books on trading it stands head and shoulders above. He talks about little known strategies and tactics funds are currently using to extract superior returns from the markets,any market, all markets. this book is a must read for anyone with even a passing interest in how things are changing in the world. it opened my mind to ideas i have never even thought about, well worth the read!

enjoy !

surfer


http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/04...f=pd_bbs_1/104-5925768-0978368?_encoding=UTF8
 
Quote from Vishnu:

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All I'm saying is that trend following as an investable strategy has pretty much failed in the past 2 years. Yes, there are exceptions but the main players are largely suffering through their worst drawdowns ever. Will they come back? Who knows. But I'd rather focus on strategies with a little more staying power instead of relying on the myth that "the trend is your friend". With friends like that...
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May I suggest that you amend the way how you determine the the trend.

But alas, such a thing may prove a bit too difficult for you seeing the sweeping statements you make.

In any case let it be known that you are not speaking on my behalf.

Trend following rules!

vital-analitics
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

for those of you who don't know what book we are talking about--- it's Altucher's latest "Super Cash" The New Hedge Fund Capitalism. In the sea of repetitive and so-so books on trading it stands head and shoulders above. He talks about little known strategies and tactics funds are currently using to extract superior returns from the markets,any market, all markets. this book is a must read for anyone with even a passing interest in how things are changing in the world. it opened my mind to ideas i have never even thought about, well worth the read!

enjoy !

surfer


http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/04...f=pd_bbs_1/104-5925768-0978368?_encoding=UTF8
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hanketsurfer, 'scuse my cynicism, but would you per chance be "on the take" here so to speak :D
Just a thought...
 
I hate these so called "experts" like Altucher. They seem far more interested in selling books than anything else.

I've been trading for over 20 years and have used trend following since the mid-80s. Every four to six years someone claims it is dead after a year or two of drawdown. Money runs to other strategies then all of a sudden it starts working again.

I echo the earlier sentiment that it will stop working when people stop acting like human beings.
 
i still find it interesting that no one seems to realize that over half of the returns from trendfollowing come from the cash sitting in T-Bills. . .and then another 25% from rebalancing gains. . .

only about 25% comes from the actual trendfollowing. . .

**the reason this strategy has done so well since the late 70's is due to the best bull market in bonds of all time. . .**
 
That's a good point bubbrubb. I don't really know what you mean by 'rebalancing gains' and I don't know if your "half" number is accurate, however, you're point is a good one I think.
 
Quote from Equalizer:

hanketsurfer, 'scuse my cynicism, but would you per chance be "on the take" here so to speak :D
Just a thought...
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unfortunately in this forum, silence is often thought as of acquiescence--so il answer this:

NO-- i am not getting paid . i just like the book.

surfer:confused:
 
Quote from bubbrubb:

i still find it interesting that no one seems to realize that over half of the returns from trendfollowing come from the cash sitting in T-Bills. . .and then another 25% from rebalancing gains. . .

only about 25% comes from the actual trendfollowing. . .

**the reason this strategy has done so well since the late 70's is due to the best bull market in bonds of all time. . .**
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i am not surprised at all at this. thanks for the data, may i ask where you found this information?

would the above render "trend following" a useless strategy for the average at home trader? seems to me it would.

best,

surfer
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

for those of you who don't know what book we are talking about--- it's Altucher's latest "Super Cash" The New Hedge Fund Capitalism. In the sea of repetitive and so-so books on trading it stands head and shoulders above. He talks about little known strategies and tactics funds are currently using to extract superior returns from the markets,any market, all markets. this book is a must read for anyone with even a passing interest in how things are changing in the world. it opened my mind to ideas i have never even thought about, well worth the read!

enjoy !

surfer


http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/04...f=pd_bbs_1/104-5925768-0978368?_encoding=UTF8
More...

Now I get it.
 
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