That's why you've got to test it. Otherwise you are just hoping...
Alternatives to charts to perceive the market...?
- Thread starter Howard
- Start date
That's why you've got to test it. Otherwise you are just hoping...
Old price data (from yesterday, the day before, and so on) drives price regardless of the current news (with only a few exceptions of outrageously extreme news). Even with outrageous news ...automated strategies don't care. They favor the direction price "has" been indicating it is going to move, regardless of whether today's news is good or bad.
Historical price doesn't need to predict the news. Price predicts both the current direction bias and the next new direction bias.
Intraday trading = introverted cellphone view
month/week/day trading = lifting one's head up from cellphone view
Howard, see the 2 DSI posts on Page 3 then view below for continuity ....
US Dollar DSI = 11 = high hatred level aka pessimism = get ready to buy, buy, buy
S&P500 DSI = 83 = high love level = optimism = caution, be ready to sell, sell, sell
http://tag618.com/
Do you realize that the above doesn't make any sense? Any current news/data will become "old". Any "old" data was once current/today's data.
But to be fair, I'm not implying that current news/data are only things that drive the market. There are also underlying macro trends and of course there is a sentiment... And of course there are short term traders that don't care about any of the above, they just buy today if it goes up today or sell if it goes down, regardless of what was yesterday, kind of market is "random" explanation to me.
I was just simply pointing out to the OP that you can't berate day traders, as they have a valid reasons to trade just like any OTF.
20 years ago, you once mentioned trading based on signals derived from listening to the radio, and other media for signals, without elaborating. It's not clear if that earlier idea is aligned with your current comment about music.
My knowledge of music theory is extensive for a non musician. Tho it's definitely limited, because my interest in music stems from my interest in trading.
Also 20 years ago, you mentioned a preference for natural hour bars. Given all the various trading platforms, particularly those I'm not familiar with, it's likely most people won't be able to take that concept and run with it ...but fortunately for me I've been able to piece together several of your ideas, perhaps in ways they weren't intended, ...but just so you know, your comments are always valued.
1234
Alternatives to charts to perceive the market...?
When it comes to stock indexes if you really put in the work studying the internals you will see that specific values during deep sell offs/capitulations will kick in large program buying which sparks a new bull market. These events are few and far between - especially in recent years. The reward gets insanely skewed in relation to the risk - these are the trades were indexes will run up as far as 100-300% and the leadership stocks will put in significantly larger moves.
When it comes to stock indexes if you really put in the work studying the internals you will see that specific values during deep sell offs/capitulations will kick in large program buying which sparks a new bull market. These events are few and far between - especially in recent years. The reward gets insanely skewed in relation to the risk - these are the trades were indexes will run up as far as 100-300% and the leadership stocks will put in significantly larger moves.
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There are easier ways of determining this conditional state where the markets moved too far too fast and these scenarios actually occur quite frequently, but otherwise spot on... linear methods don't work. But a non-linear application of core components which can be linear and often described as weak, ... is all that's needed after understanding the non-linear requirements.
What then should day traders use to trade?