This post is a monthly and weekly trading performance update.
Although progress has been made on theoretical aspects of trading, practical application and execution of these theories and my trading system have been lagging due to inconsistent discipline in both patience waiting for valid setups and money management. It seems when one rule is violated, everything else seems to unravel. Good thing I haven’t left the kiddie pool with risk taking. To be fair, I was quite busy at work, but this was known in advance and my plan was to either not trade or trade less than I actually did.
As an adjustment, I would normally reduce my risk tolerance to “Pre-kiddie pool” levels, but I’m still feeling confident enough to stay at present risk levels. I see my system as fairly robust and it is simply waiting for the operator to properly engage.
The spot trucking freight market was scary,
all-time record strong last week. Scary, because we are at the normally slow, beginning of month. Scary, because we are in the middle of the seasonally slowest part of the year, the first quarter. Of course, another way to look at it instead of “Scary”, is to look at it as “Exciting”. Exciting, as the implications are, we will be entering boom times not seen since maybe the 1950’s. The underlying basis for this outlook is pent up energy from the suppressive effects of Covid as well as excitement for many, including an International audience, related to a new US President. Plus a few trillion in stimulus, of course. While this burgeoning party may last for the next five years, give or take a year or two, there are serious structural challenges that lay ahead. High debt levels and increasing interest rates will substantially increase Federal debt service levels, potentially reducing budget flexibility during the next slowdown. Future slowdowns may have even greater negative feedback potential than historically speaking, making intervention even more critical to avoid systemic collapse. Printing without the corresponding support of continuing productively gains solves little. for example, human nature tends to become complacent after prosperity, which tends to reduce productivity gains. Risk taking increases, often directly or indirectly involving our financial institutions, further increasing systemic risk. In addition, technology advances will cause increasing displacements in certain large areas of the workforce. Plus, there are still the mundane, at this point, geopolitical and demographic issues. Although if we actually have five plus years of prosperity, it could very well get us over the “Demographic hump”. Combining the aforementioned challenges seems to make a very formable future ahead. In other words, we should take full advantage of the opportunities the next few years will likely present.
The equities markets will likely rise for the next few years with normal and even larger than normal corrections related to typical ebb and flow of investor confidence and purchasing power along with taper and rising interest rate fears.
Monthly Trading Performance:
Weekly Trading Performance:
