Almost everyone is lying. Because there's no such...

[notagain]

Longterm market follows gov't spending and GDP growth, index daily price action is random within two standard deviations. Pension funds are holding the 200 week SMA, market looks very different for them. They could take profits at will or buy the next dip of bad news.

 

[digitalnomad]

index daily price action is random within two standard deviations

I beg to differ

 

[ElectricSavant]

Generally speaking how would you define TA...Trading or Speculating?

ES

People need to expand the definition of trading. Picking the direction for one product is not the all encompassing definition of trading. Arguably, that's not even trading. That's speculating

 

[ironchef]

index daily price action is random within two standard deviations.

I am with @digitalnomad. You forgot about fat-tails.

Go plot SPY/Dia/QQQ... daily price changes and see if you can fit a Gaussian to the tails.

The real challenge is how you can profit from knowing it is not exactly random.

 

[Wheezooo]

Generally speaking how would you define TA...Trading or Speculating?

ES

Speculating

 

[notagain]

I'm here to learn, good I hit a nerve
long term, the retail trader has a chance
maybe its all noise between very wide trendlines

 

[digitalnomad]

I'm here to learn, good I hit a nervelong term, the retail trader has a chance maybe its all noise between very wide trendlines
View attachment 212064

Judging by your research tool of choice, i’ll take that with a grain of sea salt.

 

[notagain]

market is insecure, when will it hit the bottom of the channel?

 

[digitalnomad]

market is insecure, when will it hit the bottom of the channel?
View attachment 212068

Same time my gonads hit the bottom

 

[Slope Trader]

Update:

I have lost another $1200 and I only have $504 left in my account. After it's gone, I'm going to end it...

Nobody is making money. NOBODY...

Deadtrader,

There is a lot of good advice for you in the many responses in this thread. My favorites are the ones suggesting that you take a break for now and then at a later time, if still fascinated by the markets, get involved again in a way that doesn't lose money while you're learning. And whatever method you decide to trade later, test it and practice it before spending money. (Volpri has this exactly right)

Was trying to think what I might add that could be helpful and it occurred to me that you would benefit from some form of proof that can be trusted which shows that individual traders can make strong returns using rules-based strategies.

I suggest that you read the two books below, which were written by traders with verified records of success and who are open about how they use chart-based technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, etc. Each of them has had many years where they made more than 100% returns after fees. Raschke says in her new book that her "normal" has been to make 200-300% per year. Their records were verified by others when they decided to run OPM and also by Jack Schwager before he included them in his Market Wizards books.

Yes, it can be done...

1. "Pit Bull" by Martin Schwartz
2. "Trading Sardines" by Linda Bradford Raschke