Almost everyone is lying. Because there's no such...

tommcginnis said:
The OP was here for two weeks, claiming
• "Everyone" lies, and
• he himself was "a coder and a data scientist."
• He stated that trading was a zero-sum game.

I hate street-level psychology, but don'tcha think that someone who thinks others are cheaters or liars is the one that's cheating or lying? I mean, 'without evidence to the contrary'.... I tend to think the best of others, and let them *show* me their true colors. Eh?

A programmer has enough respect for his/her craft not to refer to what they do as "code" unless the guts have already been written by somebody else, and they're just writing filler. "Just coding."

And, flatly, NO "data scientist" would mistake voluntary markets for "zero-sum games" as if that were a bad thing. By construction, each person deems themselves better off for the trade being made than not -- markets *increase* the utility of all. ("And, no 'rocket science' needed.")

So,.........
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So true, he could be a troll for all we know. Memories of a group of posters on here around 8-9 years ago who insisted all stock moves were a random walk. Any trend including a strong persistent one they still insisted was a random walk.
 
DeadTrader, finding a system is like walking the line between sanity and insanity. The insanity lets you ask the right questions while the sanity lets you answer them.
 
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Nine_Ender said:
who insisted all stock moves were a random walk
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no markets are not random....but that does not mean you can predict them.....but the fact of the matter is that any edge is fleeting and you have trade in the market when you have an edge.
so 80% of time you are doing nothing
 
if you are looking for a one page on how to trade you are not going to find it

most of the time it is management of the trade that makes you money.

what you have to learn is how to manage the trade, manage your geed and fear, manage your capital....
most traders only manage their entry........but that is only a small part of trading
 
The real edge is a combination of expertise and insight across multiple disciplines.

Mathematics : Probability, Statistics, Random Variables (and so much more).
Markets Knowledge : Expertise in the interpretation of financial securities and their use.
Technology : Being able to use scripts / algorithms and other tech to be more productive.

You also need to have a very sophisticated understanding of the global economy and markets.

As you can see, this is not an easy task. It can take 10 years (or more). Just an aside, I would guess that it takes an IQ > 135 just to understand the above.
 
DeadTrader said:
Hi

I'm a coder and data scientist. I have been working on trading for over 2 years. Spent lots of money. Every trainer i have paid lies. Because, there's no profitable system. If there's, nobody will teach you what it's. Trading is a zero-sum game. Your odds are same in Vegas. There's no such profitable trading system.

For example:

ForexSignals - Andrew Lockwood
He claims he's trader but i have never seen his real account. He make money by selling products.

Warrior Trading - Ross Cameron
Ross claims he made $500 to $100K in 45 days or so. He has a new challenge and he claims he made 1 million but it took years. If he could make $500 - $100K, why not keep doing the same? If you can not trade with a lot of money, you can still trade with $500. All he teaches is how to trade flag breakouts.

Warrior Trading - Steve Dahl
Steve Dahl is a showman. He claims he's trading. He never shows his statements. He says something like it's against the rules. All he's doing is, marketing his product TAS Market profile. His stoploss is like 250 - 350. Not for every trader. He trades trades futures (!).

----

And here are some so called profitable strategies...

Order Flow Trading
There's no such thing. You can see supply and demand (support / resistance). However, price is never overbought or oversold. Price is always right. There are anomalies but they are not easy to see. There's 50% probability that S/R will be broken or bounce. You can never know if someone going to click on the market buy/sell button.

Price Action
Even my random chart generator does have price action. It's all random and there are trends...

High Probability Chart Patterns
Nope! HS, engulf, pin bar... All of them tested. Your chance is still less than 50%

Trading Algos
They are not fake and profitable until they become losers. Most of profitable algos risk 4 or more to get 1. One day, they will lose all the money

Backtesting #1
I have coded a random trade simulator. This script enters a trade randomly. 1:1 RRR and traded more than 10.000 (simulated). However, system never but never won more than 49%. (no spread or commissions calculated). You can say, if there's 50% probability, how come system can not win %50? Of course it can not win. We have stop-loss at the same range. Sometimes, market stops us and goes back to target.

Backtesting #2
I have created a simple moving average strategy and put the script in a loop to find the best matched values. After a few hours, i had enough data and plots. However, i strongly believe that, winning algos will lose by time. Everything changes. They worked in the past and it doesn't necessarily means that it's going to work in the future.

---

Market is always right. It goes, where it wants to. We can never know the future. Some says, we don't know or predict future. We see and trade "now". It's not true. "Now" is the future. All you see is the historical data. Our brain is used to perceive positive things. That's why it looks so easy. It's not!

There's no scientific study that proves trading is profitable. Come on guys. Really? Don't you think that there are profs trying to find some scientific evidence? Don't tell me about momentum. It's all luck... That's it.

---

Everyone says aim for 1%-2% return per month. Lol! How can you trade for living? Assuming that you need at least 3-4K per month. So you simply need 300-400K account to make 3-4K per month.

I know there are trainers here. Please stop stealing peoples dreams. Most of you claim that your course is not get rich quick scheme but it's. You are advertising like it's.

---

Nobody can have 50% win rate with 1:2 RRR consistently. I'm almost sure about that. Here's the simulations i have done.

Initial balance: 10K,

Risk 1%, win-rate: 50%, rrr: 2, simulated 500 trades (~2 per day)
Results: 114509.51, 77677.79, 92915.19, 241527.18 etc...
if Risk is 2% result is something like 2,513,901.02... x250 in a year!

Risk 1%, win-rate: 40%, rrr: 2, simulated 500 trades (~2 per day)
Results: 42756.02, 34693.05, 23534.11, 36827.51

If you have a system 1:2 rrr system and your win rate is 50%, you are lying or you are lying. Because we both know that you don't have such thing.

-----

Now why am i writing all these? Because i have started to find some patterns 2 years ago with hope. I was almost sure that i could do this. Hundreds of times, i tought i became millionaire. But there were always bug in the system. Failed tens of hundreds of times. Most of my trades stopped by a few ticks only or missed by a few ticks.

I'm working on this for 2 years and i have nothing left. It's like addiction. I know i will not be able to profitable but i'm still on it. Even if i can find a profitable strategy i will not be able to trade because no more balance left to trade. Actually I have found one. But it's all historical... It worked last 10 years and i doubt it will work tomorrow.

I know i know, most of you will call me loser and get mad at me. You are right. I'm a loser. I accept in advance and still love you. This is just my opinions. Like everyone says, these are not financial advice :)

Now i can go in peace...
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Why isn't long-term trend-following on this list?
 
DeadTrader, I feel your pain. I have quit trading just to return several times in my life. I cannot even speak to my wife about trading, but ironically she will play the lottery. I view trading like playing the lottery.

I have discovered the Micro Nasdaq (MNQ) after wasting many years in the "Wild West of Forex". I always wanted to trade the Nasdaq as it is the best bang for the buck compared to other index futures, but it seems so wild. Now I can experiment live with a micro contract and lose more slowly and gain the much needed live trading experience that I need. Yes I hold out for the time that I can get an edge. I have not given up but I am in search of what fits me to stave off the truth that the market is just a big casino in which the traders that you are competing against will never help you. Even if a kind soul tried to help you it may not fit and you would not use the knowledge given you. This trading thing becomes a personal quest in which I may die before finding the "edge" that I speak of. I told Wifey I am forever lost.

Fortunately, my house has no mortgage (just property tax) and I do not use credit cards. I am 60 years old and cannot really retire if I wish to keep trading as I constantly need to fund my trading habit. How much have I lost while chasing my dream of finding an edge and becoming consistently profitable?...I do not want to even go there. To deal with this reality I insist on trading being gambling to deal with my failure.

is trading "not gambling". Vote here:

Is trading Gambling or not .."What say You" Vote here.

P.S. You know my trading is like my walk with the Lord Jesus Christ. First, You got to admit you are a sinner to be born again (with a little help :)). When you begin your "NEW walk of trading" perhaps "probabilities" can become job tools instead of gambling temptations.
 
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