Almost everyone is lying. Because there's no such...
- Thread starter DeadTrader
- Start date
let me just tell you if you hven't wasted your time and money burning through all the materials both paid for and free then you will be lacking experience. since experience is what you need to make it in the trading business then i suggest you develop some speed reading skills and have some deep pockets to burn through all the materials you possibly can. then find a mentor who out of the kindness of his heart will show you how he trades, not that you will be able to replicate the style but rather that you may KNOW it can be accomplished.
i've burnt enough money and time in this venture, but have not given up and will continue learning and exploring as long i'm able to do so. hopefully someday i will get there or not. Thanks to the people in this forum who have found success and willing to share ideas and help out the wannabes. not looking to being spoon-fed, just some ideas that is worth automating, as automated trading is my area of interest.
We need people like you and Mark Brown. You are feeding the machines and ensure all the parts keep being lubed and greased nicely. Thank you for your monetary contributions to the rat wheel.
Programming @ https://www.elitetrader.com/et/forums/programming.65/
Strategy Development @ https://www.elitetrader.com/et/forums/strategy-development.34/
Data Sets and Feeds @ https://www.elitetrader.com/et/forums/data-sets-and-feeds.66/
wrbtrader
June the month
We traders practice the 21st century version of Alchemy, searching for the philosopher's stone call edge.Hi
I'm a coder and data scientist. I have been working on trading for over 2 years. Spent lots of money. Every trainer i have paid lies. Because, there's no profitable system. If there's, nobody will teach you what it's. Trading is a zero-sum game. Your odds are same in Vegas. There's no such profitable trading system.
For example:
ForexSignals - Andrew Lockwood
He claims he's trader but i have never seen his real account. He make money by selling products.
Warrior Trading - Ross Cameron
Ross claims he made $500 to $100K in 45 days or so. He has a new challenge and he claims he made 1 million but it took years. If he could make $500 - $100K, why not keep doing the same? If you can not trade with a lot of money, you can still trade with $500. All he teaches is how to trade flag breakouts.
Warrior Trading - Steve Dahl
Steve Dahl is a showman. He claims he's trading. He never shows his statements. He says something like it's against the rules. All he's doing is, marketing his product TAS Market profile. His stoploss is like 250 - 350. Not for every trader. He trades trades futures (!).
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And here are some so called profitable strategies...
Order Flow Trading
There's no such thing. You can see supply and demand (support / resistance). However, price is never overbought or oversold. Price is always right. There are anomalies but they are not easy to see. There's 50% probability that S/R will be broken or bounce. You can never know if someone going to click on the market buy/sell button.
Price Action
Even my random chart generator does have price action. It's all random and there are trends...
High Probability Chart Patterns
Nope! HS, engulf, pin bar... All of them tested. Your chance is still less than 50%
Trading Algos
They are not fake and profitable until they become losers. Most of profitable algos risk 4 or more to get 1. One day, they will lose all the money
Backtesting #1
I have coded a random trade simulator. This script enters a trade randomly. 1:1 RRR and traded more than 10.000 (simulated). However, system never but never won more than 49%. (no spread or commissions calculated). You can say, if there's 50% probability, how come system can not win %50? Of course it can not win. We have stop-loss at the same range. Sometimes, market stops us and goes back to target.
Backtesting #2
I have created a simple moving average strategy and put the script in a loop to find the best matched values. After a few hours, i had enough data and plots. However, i strongly believe that, winning algos will lose by time. Everything changes. They worked in the past and it doesn't necessarily means that it's going to work in the future.
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Market is always right. It goes, where it wants to. We can never know the future. Some says, we don't know or predict future. We see and trade "now". It's not true. "Now" is the future. All you see is the historical data. Our brain is used to perceive positive things. That's why it looks so easy. It's not!
There's no scientific study that proves trading is profitable. Come on guys. Really? Don't you think that there are profs trying to find some scientific evidence? Don't tell me about momentum. It's all luck... That's it.
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Everyone says aim for 1%-2% return per month. Lol! How can you trade for living? Assuming that you need at least 3-4K per month. So you simply need 300-400K account to make 3-4K per month.
I know there are trainers here. Please stop stealing peoples dreams. Most of you claim that your course is not get rich quick scheme but it's. You are advertising like it's.
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Nobody can have 50% win rate with 1:2 RRR consistently. I'm almost sure about that. Here's the simulations i have done.
Initial balance: 10K,
Risk 1%, win-rate: 50%, rrr: 2, simulated 500 trades (~2 per day)
Results: 114509.51, 77677.79, 92915.19, 241527.18 etc...
if Risk is 2% result is something like 2,513,901.02... x250 in a year!
Risk 1%, win-rate: 40%, rrr: 2, simulated 500 trades (~2 per day)
Results: 42756.02, 34693.05, 23534.11, 36827.51
If you have a system 1:2 rrr system and your win rate is 50%, you are lying or you are lying. Because we both know that you don't have such thing.
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Now why am i writing all these? Because i have started to find some patterns 2 years ago with hope. I was almost sure that i could do this. Hundreds of times, i tought i became millionaire. But there were always bug in the system. Failed tens of hundreds of times. Most of my trades stopped by a few ticks only or missed by a few ticks.
I'm working on this for 2 years and i have nothing left. It's like addiction. I know i will not be able to profitable but i'm still on it. Even if i can find a profitable strategy i will not be able to trade because no more balance left to trade. Actually I have found one. But it's all historical... It worked last 10 years and i doubt it will work tomorrow.
I know i know, most of you will call me loser and get mad at me. You are right. I'm a loser. I accept in advance and still love you. This is just my opinions. Like everyone says, these are not financial advice
Now i can go in peace...
Thanks wrbtrader. i'm not looking for strategy development tips. i consider myself fairly advanced coder having developed plenty of strategies of multiple types(trend-following, mean reversion, etc..) using both traditional indicators as well as custom built ones. But most of them have drawdown of <-20% and can't trade them on small account without sufficient funding. So after reading some of @schweiz posts, i realized that the key to reducing drawdowns and create a strategy that is tradeable for smaller accounts is to refine the entries such that it buys close to the bottom and sells near the tops. In one of his posts, schweiz mentions about a mathematical model that he implements to find the optimal entry locations. So my ask to the larger audience are for some examples of such models(if they exist) that can be defined to create some robust strategies.
Destriero has problems if he is not the supertrader of ET. If he thinks somebody might be as smart or smarter then he, he starts to post a lot of nonsense.
He posted a REFCO statement from me. He pretends that there is no money in this account as he sees a $0 amount. What he does not say is that the zero dollar amount concerns OPEN POSITIONS. That is clearly visible on the statement. That should (and is) always be zero as I daytrade. So I never have open positions overnight.
I think that this example tells you already enough about his "personality". I blocked him but he keeps coming back by logging off so that he can read my postings. That also tells a lot about his "personality". He is spending most of his time using these practices not only against me, but against a lot of posters on ET.
PS: I did not answer to your request as I only share what I wish to share. So requests I get stay unanswered if I have to share more than I wish. If I would not be trading and only post nonsnense like Destriero is telling, I would not have so many likes. Best thing to do is block Destriero.
No, the key is being very picky in taking signals. That reduces the chances to get a long row of consecutive losses. Signals should be over 75% profitable. And very good signals have enough potential to make a big move. That's better then trying to take every move and make $5 per trade. Your average profit per trade should be much bigger then your average loss.
Very good entries and exits are an additional advantage.