I have quit trading twice before. First time was 2005 after quitting my corporate job to trade full time. I started off day trading but then put my programming skills to use and wrote an automated trading system in VB6. Made some money, lost some money, realized my strategies were flawed and got another job, largely based on the skills I gained from building the ATS. I even gave an office mate just about every trading book I owned. He also eventually went full time...it did not work out for him but in the process he learned various machine learning techniques and he is now working for a Chinese telecom in New Jersey using ML to predict network failures. I started back up in 2012, developed a web based app, made some money trading with the strategies I developed but killed the project because the architecture was flawed. Started back up a few years ago with much improved coding skills, a better understanding of markets and better idea for research. So far so good but time will tell. I keep coming back to trading because it is a problem domain I really enjoy. Consider yourself fortunate in that you have very marketable skills and can easily start making very good risk free income. There are some who spend decades at this endeavor with very little to show for it.Hi
I'm a coder and data scientist. I have been working on trading for over 2 years. Spent lots of money. Every trainer i have paid lies. Because, there's no profitable system. If there's, nobody will teach you what it's. Trading is a zero-sum game. Your odds are same in Vegas. There's no such profitable trading system.
For example:
ForexSignals - Andrew Lockwood
He claims he's trader but i have never seen his real account. He make money by selling products.
Warrior Trading - Ross Cameron
Ross claims he made $500 to $100K in 45 days or so. He has a new challenge and he claims he made 1 million but it took years. If he could make $500 - $100K, why not keep doing the same? If you can not trade with a lot of money, you can still trade with $500. All he teaches is how to trade flag breakouts.
Warrior Trading - Steve Dahl
Steve Dahl is a showman. He claims he's trading. He never shows his statements. He says something like it's against the rules. All he's doing is, marketing his product TAS Market profile. His stoploss is like 250 - 350. Not for every trader. He trades trades futures (!).
----
And here are some so called profitable strategies...
Order Flow Trading
There's no such thing. You can see supply and demand (support / resistance). However, price is never overbought or oversold. Price is always right. There are anomalies but they are not easy to see. There's 50% probability that S/R will be broken or bounce. You can never know if someone going to click on the market buy/sell button.
Price Action
Even my random chart generator does have price action. It's all random and there are trends...
High Probability Chart Patterns
Nope! HS, engulf, pin bar... All of them tested. Your chance is still less than 50%
Trading Algos
They are not fake and profitable until they become losers. Most of profitable algos risk 4 or more to get 1. One day, they will lose all the money
Backtesting #1
I have coded a random trade simulator. This script enters a trade randomly. 1:1 RRR and traded more than 10.000 (simulated). However, system never but never won more than 49%. (no spread or commissions calculated). You can say, if there's 50% probability, how come system can not win %50? Of course it can not win. We have stop-loss at the same range. Sometimes, market stops us and goes back to target.
Backtesting #2
I have created a simple moving average strategy and put the script in a loop to find the best matched values. After a few hours, i had enough data and plots. However, i strongly believe that, winning algos will lose by time. Everything changes. They worked in the past and it doesn't necessarily means that it's going to work in the future.
---
Market is always right. It goes, where it wants to. We can never know the future. Some says, we don't know or predict future. We see and trade "now". It's not true. "Now" is the future. All you see is the historical data. Our brain is used to perceive positive things. That's why it looks so easy. It's not!
There's no scientific study that proves trading is profitable. Come on guys. Really? Don't you think that there are profs trying to find some scientific evidence? Don't tell me about momentum. It's all luck... That's it.
---
Everyone says aim for 1%-2% return per month. Lol! How can you trade for living? Assuming that you need at least 3-4K per month. So you simply need 300-400K account to make 3-4K per month.
I know there are trainers here. Please stop stealing peoples dreams. Most of you claim that your course is not get rich quick scheme but it's. You are advertising like it's.
---
Nobody can have 50% win rate with 1:2 RRR consistently. I'm almost sure about that. Here's the simulations i have done.
Initial balance: 10K,
Risk 1%, win-rate: 50%, rrr: 2, simulated 500 trades (~2 per day)
Results: 114509.51, 77677.79, 92915.19, 241527.18 etc...
if Risk is 2% result is something like 2,513,901.02... x250 in a year!
Risk 1%, win-rate: 40%, rrr: 2, simulated 500 trades (~2 per day)
Results: 42756.02, 34693.05, 23534.11, 36827.51
If you have a system 1:2 rrr system and your win rate is 50%, you are lying or you are lying. Because we both know that you don't have such thing.
-----
Now why am i writing all these? Because i have started to find some patterns 2 years ago with hope. I was almost sure that i could do this. Hundreds of times, i tought i became millionaire. But there were always bug in the system. Failed tens of hundreds of times. Most of my trades stopped by a few ticks only or missed by a few ticks.
I'm working on this for 2 years and i have nothing left. It's like addiction. I know i will not be able to profitable but i'm still on it. Even if i can find a profitable strategy i will not be able to trade because no more balance left to trade. Actually I have found one. But it's all historical... It worked last 10 years and i doubt it will work tomorrow.
I know i know, most of you will call me loser and get mad at me. You are right. I'm a loser. I accept in advance and still love you. This is just my opinions. Like everyone says, these are not financial advice
Now i can go in peace...
Almost everyone is lying. Because there's no such...
- Thread starter DeadTrader
- Start date
this is not me...but an ex-google programmer:
How I lost $350K daytrading stocks and what I learned from it.
How I lost $350K daytrading stocks and what I learned from it.
Try 50 trades a year ~1 per week swing, less noisy.
Hi
I'm a coder and data scientist. I have been working on trading for over 2 years. Spent lots of money. Every trainer i have paid lies. Because, there's no profitable system. If there's, nobody will teach you what it's. Trading is a zero-sum game. Your odds are same in Vegas. There's no such profitable trading system.
For example:
ForexSignals - Andrew Lockwood
He claims he's trader but i have never seen his real account. He make money by selling products.
Warrior Trading - Ross Cameron
Ross claims he made $500 to $100K in 45 days or so. He has a new challenge and he claims he made 1 million but it took years. If he could make $500 - $100K, why not keep doing the same? If you can not trade with a lot of money, you can still trade with $500. All he teaches is how to trade flag breakouts.
Warrior Trading - Steve Dahl
Steve Dahl is a showman. He claims he's trading. He never shows his statements. He says something like it's against the rules. All he's doing is, marketing his product TAS Market profile. His stoploss is like 250 - 350. Not for every trader. He trades trades futures (!).
----
And here are some so called profitable strategies...
Order Flow Trading
There's no such thing. You can see supply and demand (support / resistance). However, price is never overbought or oversold. Price is always right. There are anomalies but they are not easy to see. There's 50% probability that S/R will be broken or bounce. You can never know if someone going to click on the market buy/sell button.
Price Action
Even my random chart generator does have price action. It's all random and there are trends...
High Probability Chart Patterns
Nope! HS, engulf, pin bar... All of them tested. Your chance is still less than 50%
Trading Algos
They are not fake and profitable until they become losers. Most of profitable algos risk 4 or more to get 1. One day, they will lose all the money
Backtesting #1
I have coded a random trade simulator. This script enters a trade randomly. 1:1 RRR and traded more than 10.000 (simulated). However, system never but never won more than 49%. (no spread or commissions calculated). You can say, if there's 50% probability, how come system can not win %50? Of course it can not win. We have stop-loss at the same range. Sometimes, market stops us and goes back to target.
Backtesting #2
I have created a simple moving average strategy and put the script in a loop to find the best matched values. After a few hours, i had enough data and plots. However, i strongly believe that, winning algos will lose by time. Everything changes. They worked in the past and it doesn't necessarily means that it's going to work in the future.
---
Market is always right. It goes, where it wants to. We can never know the future. Some says, we don't know or predict future. We see and trade "now". It's not true. "Now" is the future. All you see is the historical data. Our brain is used to perceive positive things. That's why it looks so easy. It's not!
There's no scientific study that proves trading is profitable. Come on guys. Really? Don't you think that there are profs trying to find some scientific evidence? Don't tell me about momentum. It's all luck... That's it.
---
Everyone says aim for 1%-2% return per month. Lol! How can you trade for living? Assuming that you need at least 3-4K per month. So you simply need 300-400K account to make 3-4K per month.
I know there are trainers here. Please stop stealing peoples dreams. Most of you claim that your course is not get rich quick scheme but it's. You are advertising like it's.
---
Nobody can have 50% win rate with 1:2 RRR consistently. I'm almost sure about that. Here's the simulations i have done.
Initial balance: 10K,
Risk 1%, win-rate: 50%, rrr: 2, simulated 500 trades (~2 per day)
Results: 114509.51, 77677.79, 92915.19, 241527.18 etc...
if Risk is 2% result is something like 2,513,901.02... x250 in a year!
Risk 1%, win-rate: 40%, rrr: 2, simulated 500 trades (~2 per day)
Results: 42756.02, 34693.05, 23534.11, 36827.51
If you have a system 1:2 rrr system and your win rate is 50%, you are lying or you are lying. Because we both know that you don't have such thing.
-----
Now why am i writing all these? Because i have started to find some patterns 2 years ago with hope. I was almost sure that i could do this. Hundreds of times, i tought i became millionaire. But there were always bug in the system. Failed tens of hundreds of times. Most of my trades stopped by a few ticks only or missed by a few ticks.
I'm working on this for 2 years and i have nothing left. It's like addiction. I know i will not be able to profitable but i'm still on it. Even if i can find a profitable strategy i will not be able to trade because no more balance left to trade. Actually I have found one. But it's all historical... It worked last 10 years and i doubt it will work tomorrow.
I know i know, most of you will call me loser and get mad at me. You are right. I'm a loser. I accept in advance and still love you. This is just my opinions. Like everyone says, these are not financial advice
Now i can go in peace...
You stated you were a coder and scientist. If this is actually the case, then you should know the proper procedure and steps for trying to find solutions:
1) Research phase - finding all the current data you can on the topic of interest.
2) Analysis phase - figuring out your approach to finding a solution.
3) Development phase - creating a solution model/plan
4) Testing phase - Using old and new data to test the model for accuracy.
5) Implementation/execution phase of the model for actual use.
Based on the results of #4 and #5, you take what you learned and go back to step #2 in a repeating loop until you find the answers you seek and a correct solution model.
Being able to trade for a living is one of the most difficult professions there is based on the low success rates and the high IQ levels of people who have tried and failed at it. It's not about being smart by natural world standards of direct intelligence and rote learning skills. It's about being able to develop understanding in reading pattern nuance, intuition, and probabilities to help you create a working model to help determine where prices are heading.
Based on that difficulty, how did you manage to do all the steps above in just 2 years time to come to your conclusions?
In realty, there is no way you could have done the proper research and work in that time and expect to have found any break though success.
The problem is rather than go through all that R&D pain, you tried to take shortcuts by trying to get the "answer key" in the way of packaged systems being sold by others.
There are rarely any true shortcuts to success. Despite what people offer to sell-the vast majority of top stars in business, entertainment, sports, wall street, politics, etc, didn't get there by taking any of the "special star courses" being offered to the public that you can find in just about any field. These people make their money off of people looking for shortcuts.
Most consistently profitable traders have been working their craft for several years and often at least a decade if not longer before they hit their stride.
You have to count the costs for any major undertaking. If you are unwilling or unable to put in that amount of time and effort, there are other occupations out there that aren't as difficult where the success rates are far higher.
You can't just look at the end result of what a successful trader can do with making money and decided on that path without also looking at the amount of work required just to have a shot of reaching that level.
With all due respect ... neither is trading baseball cards. Or selling $100,000+ cars. Or building excessively large homes. Or working for a company that just wants to drive its competitors out of business for profit, instead of genuinely improving the lives of its customers.
Economic systems that focus labor on contributions to society have generally failed.
Economic systems that focus on providing individuals with opportunities to pursue their interests, thrive, and yes ... make money ... are winning. China tried both. Interesting results.
Trading for many is a sincere interest, and some thrive, and some make money. If you are one of those, and you take care of your family & friends, and you donate to causes that care for those in desperate need, and you contribute to the betterment of your community ...... then you are contributing as much or more to society than most who labor in those other economic systems. Or those who sell $100,000+ cars ... or build excessively large homes ... etc ...
WADR. 2 logical errors
- other non-contributing activities do exist but that doesn’t make trading any more legit. Numerous professions out there that contribute positively to the society. Far more than pissing away trading accounts while living in moms basement.
- donation has nothing to do with the trading profession. And speaking of which. Traders probably give less on average as 95% lose money.
I think anyone who comes across as honest and genuine is allowed to call out snake oil sales men, absolutely yes. People can refute the obvious into eternity, but fact remains that nobody who is able to generate excess returns in this business is gonna teach or sell his "secret sauce". And the addage that those who can't do can still be good teachers may remain true in many areas in life where hard cash is not on the line and motivations are not primarily driven by money, but in this business I have not seen a single successful trader passing on his trading wisdom to make a living. If any successful trader with proven track record passes his wisdom on then out of altruistic motivations. Ray Dalio for example has zero monetary motivation to educate the masses, he clearly is doing it out of selfless motivations. Successful traders don't make a living teaching, they make a living trading. Period.
Really you think a guy with two year part time "experience" has the right to call people out? I have followed and paid many educators and I don't think there was a single one where I didn't learn something. As Mark said, when you are fresh, you can't even value someone's advice because it simply goes above your head. Like whatever @destriero says (on topic) sounds like gibberish to me
WADR (1st time I've used that) ... no logic errors. Its as legitimate as numerous, numerous, numerous other professions in our capitalist economy.
And I really enjoy it
I am sorry that it seems so unpleasant for you.
Most people who trade want to be right, and by doing so, they lose money. “Being right,” you see, means “not losing money.” By trading not to lose money, they set themselves up to do exactly that which they had hoped to avoid.
A few, on the other hand, trade to make money, and by doing so usually find themselves right. This should be obvious, but the obvious is not obvious to most.
Put another way, most attempt to develop a trading methodology that they believe will allow them to sell high and to buy back lower, at a profit, or to buy low, and to sell out higher, again, at a profit. But what most end up with, in actuality, is a methodology that leads them to do the exact opposite. Their buy stops are are the sell limits of those who trade to make money. Their sell stops are the buy limits of those who trade to make money.
Eventually they come to believe that the game is rigged, and that no one can win, never realizing that they themselves are the ones who did the rigging. They have set themselves up for failure.
If only they had set out to make money, rather than not lose it, the game would have been set in their favor. They all protest that of course they were in it to make money. But such are the lies we humans tell ourselves. Tell the lie too long and one forgets it is a lie. And rather than merely telling out, they live it.
A few, on the other hand, trade to make money, and by doing so usually find themselves right. This should be obvious, but the obvious is not obvious to most.
Put another way, most attempt to develop a trading methodology that they believe will allow them to sell high and to buy back lower, at a profit, or to buy low, and to sell out higher, again, at a profit. But what most end up with, in actuality, is a methodology that leads them to do the exact opposite. Their buy stops are are the sell limits of those who trade to make money. Their sell stops are the buy limits of those who trade to make money.
Eventually they come to believe that the game is rigged, and that no one can win, never realizing that they themselves are the ones who did the rigging. They have set themselves up for failure.
If only they had set out to make money, rather than not lose it, the game would have been set in their favor. They all protest that of course they were in it to make money. But such are the lies we humans tell ourselves. Tell the lie too long and one forgets it is a lie. And rather than merely telling out, they live it.
