AllenZ's Journal
- Thread starter AllenZ
- Start date
"Missed entry 2 - Near 15:10 I was looking for a short that would allow my to use the 20ma on the daily as a stop as well as the 860-865 resistance zone. My plan was to short 1/2 way between the high ( 855 ) and the bottom of the resistance zone ( 860 ). Placed order to short at 857.50. It never hit and I canceled at 15:25 as I don't enter trades after that point in the day."
Would you mind explaining why you don't trade the last half hour?
Would you mind explaining why you don't trade the last half hour?
I dont like to trade the final 30minutes of the day for 2 reasons.
1. I find that TA becomes less reliable in the final 20-30 minutes of the day and moves are far more random.
2. The average holding time for my trades is 20 - 40 minutes so entering a trade at 15:25 or so may not leave enough time to realize the potential of the trade.
I will say that the movement late in the day may be playable and tradeable for some, it just does not fit most of my trading criteria.
AllenZ
If you have read all my posts in this journal then you know there are certain trading conditions I find difficult for the current patterns I am trading. One of them is the day following a WR7 or expansion day. since yesterday can definitely be categorized as an expansion day i came into today with the idea of being selective, especially into strength.
Trades
Trade 1 - 10:21 Long 880 Exit 880 flat
Trade 2 - 11:10 Short 884 Exit 886 -2
Trade 3 - 14:09 Short 897 Exit 893 +4
Day Net* +2
Week Net +17
Month Net +49
Trade 1 - We broke the 30min high then retraced to form a bullflag. I entered above the 5min pivot, placed a stop at 874. It went to 885 or so and I trailed the stop to breakeven, perhaps a bit too tight. In any case it came back to stop me out flat.
Trade 2 - I went short on the 5min down pivot that followed the new high ( that I probably should have been in for from prior long entry ). This was not a great trade but I liked the resistance at 888-890 which is where I placed my stop. As the range narrowed I lower the stop to 886 and exited near lunchtime.
Trade 3 - Entered on the 15min down pivot. ( 7 bar reversal setup ) and placed the stop above the days high. Since this was the first short setup in a timeframe longer than the 5minute I was anxious to give this room to run. We moved down to 888 support and I trailed the stop to 893 ( again too tight ) and eventually stopped out before the big drop. This was the entry that got away, in hindsight my stop should have remained at the prior bar 15min high and that would have kept me in to my target of 884 at least.
Trade 1 and 3 were perhaps trailed too tightly and I chalk this up to my caution on days that follow expansion days. I am far more cautious on these days and today it may have cost me a few pennies. I was very patient after missing the move up over lunchtime, found my entry, then I let it slip away although ending positive on the day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weekly Statistics
Week Net +17
Weeks Trades 19
Stopped Flat 5
Wins 6
Losses 8
Win Rate = 43% ( excluding flat trades )
Ave Gain = 8.1
Ave Loss = 4.0
Month to Date Statistics
Month Net +49
Months Trades 32
Stopped Flat 8
Wins 13
Losses 11
Win Rate = 54%
Ave Gain = 7.2
Ave Loss = 4.1
Good overall statistics as they correlate pretty close to my original post to this thread.
*All Net totals exclude commission expense.
AllenZ
Trades
Trade 1 - 10:21 Long 880 Exit 880 flat
Trade 2 - 11:10 Short 884 Exit 886 -2
Trade 3 - 14:09 Short 897 Exit 893 +4
Day Net* +2
Week Net +17
Month Net +49
Trade 1 - We broke the 30min high then retraced to form a bullflag. I entered above the 5min pivot, placed a stop at 874. It went to 885 or so and I trailed the stop to breakeven, perhaps a bit too tight. In any case it came back to stop me out flat.
Trade 2 - I went short on the 5min down pivot that followed the new high ( that I probably should have been in for from prior long entry ). This was not a great trade but I liked the resistance at 888-890 which is where I placed my stop. As the range narrowed I lower the stop to 886 and exited near lunchtime.
Trade 3 - Entered on the 15min down pivot. ( 7 bar reversal setup ) and placed the stop above the days high. Since this was the first short setup in a timeframe longer than the 5minute I was anxious to give this room to run. We moved down to 888 support and I trailed the stop to 893 ( again too tight ) and eventually stopped out before the big drop. This was the entry that got away, in hindsight my stop should have remained at the prior bar 15min high and that would have kept me in to my target of 884 at least.
Trade 1 and 3 were perhaps trailed too tightly and I chalk this up to my caution on days that follow expansion days. I am far more cautious on these days and today it may have cost me a few pennies. I was very patient after missing the move up over lunchtime, found my entry, then I let it slip away although ending positive on the day.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weekly Statistics
Week Net +17
Weeks Trades 19
Stopped Flat 5
Wins 6
Losses 8
Win Rate = 43% ( excluding flat trades )
Ave Gain = 8.1
Ave Loss = 4.0
Month to Date Statistics
Month Net +49
Months Trades 32
Stopped Flat 8
Wins 13
Losses 11
Win Rate = 54%
Ave Gain = 7.2
Ave Loss = 4.1
Good overall statistics as they correlate pretty close to my original post to this thread.
*All Net totals exclude commission expense.
AllenZ
I'll help you out Big Al
A WR7 means the range of the bar was the widest of the prior 7 and a NR7 means it was the narrowest of the prior 7.
Contraction and expansion bars can tell a great deal about the future activity of the market and depending on where the bars are formed it can tell a great deal...
PEACE and good-trading,
Commisso
Hi all!
IMO the discussion about the commission anf if they should be included in the journal was very intersting.
So I decided to have a look at the performancerecord of the QQQ trading room on RT.
The results are very interesting.
I dont have a clue if all the trades tracked in the record were playable by the members. But I think we can be sure they would not played better because nobody would publish a worser record than necessary for sure.
I took the first 9 month of the year:
Totals:
gain: 591.2 NQ with 830 RTavg. gain per month is 65.68 NQ points
gain: 14.78 $ QQQ with 830 RT, gain per month is 1.64 $
including 5$ (ib fee) for the RT:
gain: 383.7 NQ points (-35% for the commissions)
avg per month is now 42.63
including 8$ for the RT:
gain 259.2 NQ points (-43.84% for the commissions)
avg per month is now 28.8
trading with 1000 shares QQQ and ib comm. (15$ RT)
gain 2.33 $ (-84,23% for the commissions)
0.26 $ avg per month
trading with 2000 shares QQQ and ib comm. (25$ RT)
gain 4.40 $ (-70,20% for the commissions)
0.49 $ avg per month
I think its very important to include the commissions as u can see here. Its important to habe a cheap broker and its important which vehicle to use to the own trading.
All in all I would say that AllenZ style is not very usefull for trading the more expensives QQQ.
His NQ performance is not great but OK. If its enough to pay him to teach is a decision everybody has to make on his own.
IMO the discussion about the commission anf if they should be included in the journal was very intersting.
So I decided to have a look at the performancerecord of the QQQ trading room on RT.
The results are very interesting.
I dont have a clue if all the trades tracked in the record were playable by the members. But I think we can be sure they would not played better because nobody would publish a worser record than necessary for sure.
I took the first 9 month of the year:
Totals:
gain: 591.2 NQ with 830 RTavg. gain per month is 65.68 NQ points
gain: 14.78 $ QQQ with 830 RT, gain per month is 1.64 $
including 5$ (ib fee) for the RT:
gain: 383.7 NQ points (-35% for the commissions)
avg per month is now 42.63
including 8$ for the RT:
gain 259.2 NQ points (-43.84% for the commissions)
avg per month is now 28.8
trading with 1000 shares QQQ and ib comm. (15$ RT)
gain 2.33 $ (-84,23% for the commissions)
0.26 $ avg per month
trading with 2000 shares QQQ and ib comm. (25$ RT)
gain 4.40 $ (-70,20% for the commissions)
0.49 $ avg per month
I think its very important to include the commissions as u can see here. Its important to habe a cheap broker and its important which vehicle to use to the own trading.
All in all I would say that AllenZ style is not very usefull for trading the more expensives QQQ.
His NQ performance is not great but OK. If its enough to pay him to teach is a decision everybody has to make on his own.
I will take this opportunity to point out that the totals given in the prior post including commission should also reflect the following.
1. All trades posted are only posted if fillable by room members and not on a "best price" basis.
2. A trader that takes 2% risk per trade ( ave stop for the 9 months in question was approx 5 NQ points so to risk 2% per trade would require $5000 in capital per contract ) would get a return in 1 year of 200% AFTER COMMISSION. If you trade 5 contracts with a 25k account you would return $50000 in a year never risking more than 2% of capital.
Now as far as QQQ goes the return under the same assumptions is closer to 8% per month or 96% a year.
Anyone that thinks these return are "just ok" either does not trade for a living, takes too much risk, or is among the best traders around. Because to think these are just ok would mean you better pulling down 400-500% a year on your money and taking a risk that will not require too much drawdown to survive a bad streak.
I make these trades in public for all to see, taking time to explain the setup used, adjust targets as the trade progresses, and allow plenty of time prior to entry from when setup is given.
For the guys out there making 400-500% a year on your money my hat is off.
I have always contended in my posts to this board that making 5-10% a month in stocks or 10-20% a month in futures is a very good return and in a bear market like this one is pretty damn good in my opinion. I will not defend my room performance any further but I welcome all to tell any professional trader that making 100% in a year while risking less than 2% per trade in stocks is " just ok ".
AllenZ
1. All trades posted are only posted if fillable by room members and not on a "best price" basis.
2. A trader that takes 2% risk per trade ( ave stop for the 9 months in question was approx 5 NQ points so to risk 2% per trade would require $5000 in capital per contract ) would get a return in 1 year of 200% AFTER COMMISSION. If you trade 5 contracts with a 25k account you would return $50000 in a year never risking more than 2% of capital.
Now as far as QQQ goes the return under the same assumptions is closer to 8% per month or 96% a year.
Anyone that thinks these return are "just ok" either does not trade for a living, takes too much risk, or is among the best traders around. Because to think these are just ok would mean you better pulling down 400-500% a year on your money and taking a risk that will not require too much drawdown to survive a bad streak.
I make these trades in public for all to see, taking time to explain the setup used, adjust targets as the trade progresses, and allow plenty of time prior to entry from when setup is given.
For the guys out there making 400-500% a year on your money my hat is off.
I have always contended in my posts to this board that making 5-10% a month in stocks or 10-20% a month in futures is a very good return and in a bear market like this one is pretty damn good in my opinion. I will not defend my room performance any further but I welcome all to tell any professional trader that making 100% in a year while risking less than 2% per trade in stocks is " just ok ".
AllenZ