Quote from AAAintheBeltway:
Consider who wins and loses. I realize this is the sort of thing that drives ordinary voters crazy. They see pols fiddling and playing games while the country circles the drain. True enough, but in the end it is all political. That is reality.
Potential winners.
1. Obama. He had total victory sooo close, until Cantor spoiled it for him. why do you think they are so angry at Cantor? Obama had the guileless Boehner ready to sign on to a grand bargain that would impose big cuts on medicare and ss through means testing and raise taxes. Republicans would have been selling out their supporters not only on raising the ceiling but also by increasing their taxes and taking away their benefits. Plus, obama could have run for reelection as the president who finally got the budget under control, and no doubt would have continued to attack republicans for cutting medicare and ss.
Now it appears Obama will have to settle for a lesser win. At this point, a simple increase in the ceiling with no strings attached is looking good to everyone but the Tea Party crowd. Still, that would be a win for obama and the media would trumpet it.
2. Bachmann. Her take no prisoners approach has resonated big time with primary voters, many of whom see the outcome of a default only hurting the same Wall Streeters who got bailed out before. Her approach offers her a win-win-win potential. If there is no increase and a default, she can criticize Obama and Geithner for mismanagement, claiming there was plenty of money to pay debt and essential expenditures. Hard to disprove. Plus, an economic disaster has to hurt Obama. If there is no increase and Geithner juggles accounts to avoid default, she can say she was right all along. And if there is some sort of compromise agreement to raise the ceiling, she will claim a sellout and proclaim the need for real leaders. Win-win-win.
3. Cantor. He has clearly played to the Tea Party caucus, which carries risk for him but also offers a clear path to the Speakership.
Potential losers.
1. Obama. All this talk about his vastly increased spending and the failure of his policies can't help him. An economic disaster following failure to raise the ceiling can't possibly help him. Voters already sense he is in over his head and that would confirm it. Blaming republicans will sound like whining and failure to take responsibility.
2. Boehner. He has shown unsteady leadership and many conservatives believe he would have given away the store without Cantor looking over hi shoulder.
3. Romney. Putative republican front runner has been notably silent, despite basing his campaign on his fiscal expertise. Reminiscent of McCain in '08 bailout talks.
