Week after week and month after month we had 5-10 "the top is in get ready for a crash" threads that were around. After 9 months of very shallow pullbacks and the mkt ignoring literally 100's of negative news items from dubai to cit going under bears have given up and capitulated. One important indicator is buy-sell has not posted his end of world news items for at least 6 weeks. Complacency is masssive and insider selling and stock issuance has busted almost every record in stk mkt history yet the mkt keeps grinding higher. The mkt will shake things up in 2010 and hurt the masses crowded on one side but one must react to it and not try to front run it.For the most part its like 2008 never happened except earnings down 40% from the highs and theres 6 mil more unemployed. One day it will matter but that time is not now.
All the "top is in" threads have vanished for weeks
- Thread starter jnorty
- Start date
Well I don't count myself as one to call top or bottom, but I do know enough to call out statements which the author tries to make them sound as facts.
Falsehood #1) "theres 6 mil more unemployed."
15.4 million unemployed in November 09 - 7.5 million unemployed December 07 = 7.9...only 2 million off...
Falsehood #2) "For the most part its like 2008 never happened except earnings down 40% from the highs"
Why don't you try reading a balance sheet, and rethink that statement.
There's plenty of other hugely important differences between our situation 1 year ago and now that you fail to mention...im guessing because they seem unimportant to you. So should we forget those things and just focus on those two misguided statements for your take on the markets? What do you think?
for the first poster earnings from the top to now are off 40-50%. we topped out at $90 plus earnings in 2007 and now were at $45-$50. as far as a contrarin sign in normal times yes it would work but these aren't normal times and being a contrarian has been a diaster. there was huge insider selling and bullishness 5 months ago and you see how that worked out for the bears.
Even Peter Schiff said, months ago, that this rally has legs, and may last awhile. I profit up or down, barring illiquidity, so I don't care which way it goes.
Well I think this is not a recovery at all. So you would probably put me in the bear camp. But wouldn't you know it, I've been long for over a year.
How did it work out for me? Hmm anywhere from 3-4 times better than S&P not to mention benefits from holding something other than USD.
US equities aren't the only thing out there.
How well did it turn out for the bulls? Allright, they probably got 50% return if they invested in spring. However their returns got eaten away due to dollar weakness. Their counterparts who were bearish on U.S. recovery for many other reasons did much better.
How did it work out for me? Hmm anywhere from 3-4 times better than S&P not to mention benefits from holding something other than USD.
US equities aren't the only thing out there.
How well did it turn out for the bulls? Allright, they probably got 50% return if they invested in spring. However their returns got eaten away due to dollar weakness. Their counterparts who were bearish on U.S. recovery for many other reasons did much better.
Broadening Top Anyone?
Edit:
What I do find interesting was that a lot of people thought that the only reason the market has been rallying was due to the weakening dollar. It has been typical that if the dollar made new lows, the market would make new highs. In the past week though, the dollar has showed strength. This has led to Gold showing at least a short term top along with oil. The equities markets on the other hand have continued to hold their strength and highs......whats going on? No dislocation? makes me go hmmmmmm
Edit:
What I do find interesting was that a lot of people thought that the only reason the market has been rallying was due to the weakening dollar. It has been typical that if the dollar made new lows, the market would make new highs. In the past week though, the dollar has showed strength. This has led to Gold showing at least a short term top along with oil. The equities markets on the other hand have continued to hold their strength and highs......whats going on? No dislocation? makes me go hmmmmmm
Lol.. Tell me about it.. Rookies make tops and bottom calls.. I think a lot of people blew up their account this year trying to time this top..