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krugman25
Only if you ask nicely.
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krugman25
Hahaha.
BTW this is time consuming to do this, so your welcome. For that reason, you just get some pretty profit curves.
I stacked the two charts with overnight only on top.
(I am sure I am not the only one who notices that when the daytime drops the overnight rallies and vice versa. Could be some interesting tests to run to try and isolate when the most overnight gains are actually happening.)
So what this does show is that aside from the 2008 crash, both methods work. After all, if the market only rose on the overnight stuff, the market would never rise, EVER, since the gains the market sees is from cash close to cash open, not from RTH gains.
If the market fell everyday for the past 16 years simply on the previous day's close, the market could never go positive.
If the market fell everyday for the past 16 years simply on the previous day's close, the market could never go positive.
I appreciate you doing it. Yeah, the running of tests like this is time consuming. Thanks!
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krugman25
Exactly. The 25 year study isn't saying the market never rises during the day. It is saying the cumulative net gains are negative out of those 6600 trading days. You can even see that on the 25 year chart, where the loss dipped almost to -50%, and has been slowly recovering those losses for the last decade or so.
Also, if you look at the metrics screenshot for the daytime only test you can actually see that 51% of the trades are winners. The problem is for those 49% of the days the trades were losers, those cumulative net % losses overcame the cumulative net % gains of the 51% of the winners.
Bleh, we're on a three-day holiday now. Have some blockage. Have some laughter. We all need to decompress.
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krugman25
Apparently stick to doing it on Tuesday! lol
