Krugman25 wasn't trying to create an argument, but a discussion. I don't understand why he's taking so much crap for posting this. I found it rather interesting.
ok... before we all get excited lol...
the backtest is interesting, but doing this off the ohlc spreadsheet is assuming you can always get the price, which is not true... say you buy at the close and sell at the open, only 50% of the time you hit the price on the spreadsheet, the other 50% you have to pay a spread.
that takes a big chunk out of the performance.
the backtest is interesting, but doing this off the ohlc spreadsheet is assuming you can always get the price, which is not true... say you buy at the close and sell at the open, only 50% of the time you hit the price on the spreadsheet, the other 50% you have to pay a spread.
that takes a big chunk out of the performance.
Backtests mean nothing. NOTHING! Only the real world experience of opening a real money trade at the close, and closing it at the open will make a true difference.
And nobody here has the stones to do it with real money, and would rather armchair quarterback it with "backtests".
I wonder why that is?
Krugman, just because you started a thread doesn't mean you own it. I think your attempts to keep the thread "focused on topic" are what is rubbing some people the wrong way here. Just let people post what they want to and ignore anything you consider as not adding value.
That said I think you may also need to calibrate your expectations on what value can even come from such a thread. Traders in their right mind will not reveal any edge. If you really do this for a living, you should understand this is not a collaborative enterprise.
Looking back over the thread, I am amused that some people seem to be denying that that the overnight effect even exists, especially a guy whose handle is "Overnight". Perhaps they protest too much?
Try it with your real money, honey, and get back to us. Mmmkay?
K
krugman25
Are historical backtests everything? No. Are historical backtests nothing? No.
Do a forward test with real money, like I do. Stop the madness!
K
krugman25
Yes, this is my thread and I started this thread for a specific reason and I will be as inviting or uninviting as I need to be. The only people who are being rubbed the wrong way are ones that are used to crapping in other peoples threads without push back.
Keyboard warriors like opinion based threads because it's the environment they thrive in. Threads that stick to non-opinion based data sets and studies puts them out of their element and makes them look stupid when they start arguing facts. I have to admit I enjoy watching them flail around like a fish out of water.
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krugman25
A few people have already posted some good value-adders that have started me on the next leg of my journey in studying this phenomenon. In that sense, this thread has already met my expectations, and others have messaged me as well saying they found it valuable. I was never looking for someone to reveal their trading secrets. Data, studies, white papers, articles, etc. to explain/explore this phenomenon better is all I am looking for here. Although if someone has built a trading strategy around this and wants to throw some nuggets out here, I certainly wouldn't stop them.
I got the same private messages from my journal thread a couple years ago. "Keep it up! Have at 'em! Give them a wherewithal!" That sort of thing.
I'm with you, just trying to keep you sane I think. I'm the oddest person you'll encounter on a BBS. Like twice the inverse of an android or something.