All market gains since 1993 have occurred after hours

[LS1Z28]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/02/your-money/stock-market-after-hours-trading.html
If you had bought the SPY at the last second of trading on each business day since 1993 and sold at the market open the next day — capturing all of the net after-hour gains — your cumulative price gain would be 571 percent.

On the other hand, if you had done the reverse, buying the E.T.F. at the first second of regular trading every morning at 9:30 a.m. and selling at the 4 p.m. close, you would be down 4.4 percent since 1993.

 

[Overnight]

Ahh, the data is wrong... ooooook.

Data says it is 10PM CST right now. Do you think that is a red herring as well?

Krugman, dude, I like you. But I have the hiccups now, and you don't want to mess with me here when I have this sort of problem. And you certainly don't want to mess with me when it comes to trading real monies. Just let it go for now.

If their idea worked, they'd be doing it. If you believed in the idea, you'd also be doing it. But you do not believe in the idea.

 

[Overnight]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/02/your-money/stock-market-after-hours-trading.html
If you had bought the SPY at the last second of trading on each business day since 1993 and sold at the market open the next day — capturing all of the net after-hour gains — your cumulative price gain would be 571 percent.
..

It is a bullshit statement and is totally untrue.

Do you know why? Because NOBODY HAS EVER DONE IT.

Academia is ripe still.

 

[krugman25]

Yes, and it is nonsensical.

"If you exclude after hours gains, the market is actually down. I find this completely fascinating."

Yer smoking something funny my friend. The market is down after hours, while it is up 300% over the past 2 years overall? And whether you believe or disbelieve the idea, have you made money on it?

I believe that was my main question.

Let's try this again. Markets are up 600% "after hours only" and down "market hours only" since 1993. The question was, has anything studied or traded this phenomena?

This thread isn't for arguing with data or facts. That is just ignorant and stupid. Take that stuff to a flat earthers thread.

 

[krugman25]

Krugman, dude, I like you. But I have the hiccups now, and you don't want to mess with me here when I have this sort of problem. And you certainly don't want to mess with me when it comes to trading real monies. Just let it go for now.

If their idea worked, they'd be doing it. If you believed in the idea, you'd also be doing it. But you do not believe in the idea.

THERE IS NO IDEA! It's a freeking data set. Stop arguing just for the sake of it.

 

[krugman25]

Krugman, dude, I like you.... If you believed in the idea, you'd also be doing it.

Bro, I like you too. But why do you think I started this thread, it wasnt to dance with you at 10PM on a Saturday. it's like this, In my weekend studying I stumbled upon a very interesting article on a market phenomena based on long term trading data. I am interested in trading it, which is actually what I am alluding to in my original post. Why haven't I traded it? Because I didn't freeking know about it before today. Again, that is the whole purpose of this post, to see if anyone else has additional impirical studies on or has tried to take advantage of this in their own trading.

I do find it very fascinating that the all net gains have accurred after hours over the last 25 years. I would expect those numbers to be far more evenly dispersed, like 300% net gains during hours and 300% after hours. Of course losses occur after hours and gains occur during our, but this data set hints to a phenoma where the losses in a 24 hour period or more heavily skewed to during market hours, and the gains are more heavily skewed to after hours. That has to be true, since the effects of it are right there in the data.

Does this phenomena change sometime in the future, I don't know, but it has at least been true for the past quarter century.

 

[sle]

The study was also tested on single name stocks and foreign markets and the results were the same.

The effect is there, but it's very thin if you test it on stocks or ETFs as opposed to an index that effectively averages the open and the close. E.g. run it on SPYs and see what is the average per trading day?

 

[Woodrow97]

If it were true, everyone would have done it. And how well did it work from Oct 2018 to Dec 2018?

Red herring.

It worked extremely WELL in Q4 2018. Overnight returns amounted to +20% last year, while intraday bear markets faded knocked down -26% off that!

 

[krugman25]

The effect is there, but it's very thin if you test it on stocks or ETFs as opposed to an index that effectively averages the open and the close. E.g. run it on SPYs and see what is the average per trading day?

Fair enough, it did look like the results were similar but not as strong. I would like to run more tests on this. Looks like I will be doing some NT scripting in my near future.

 

[krugman25]

It worked extremely WELL in Q4 2018. Overnight returns amounted to +20% last year, while intraday bear markets faded knocked down -26% off that!

Wow, this I wasn't aware of. Thanks! I don't know if you have any other info for past quarters, but if so please post it here.

That is basically what the entire data set looks like. The hot and heavy selling happens during hours, less of it after hours.