The reason that you see market is up an inch before open is retail investors who don't follow the news and see the market was going up are buying. Again they will get burnt. Big investors will sell today.
big investors will sell today, but the government will keep on buying. I wouldn't be surprised if the last 6 weeks was in fact the qe2, maybe it can continue until the elections and then on Nov 3rd big ben will come out and break the news.
Based on what? Have you actually been trading (or at least following the markets) for the last 10 to 12 years?
If you're talking very long-term, maybe, but there's really not enough decade-over-decade data to prove the "stocks in the long-term" thesis for U.S. markets.