As I mentioned before, it is time to cut loss and get Greek out of Euro, rather than adding to the loser or doubling down by loaning them more money.
Alexis Tsipras' "open letter" to German citizens
- Thread starter Tsing Tao
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well, the good thing is that most every penny that is additionally loaned to them will be used to repay existing debt, most Europeans feel hard pressed to add a single additional Euro into the hungry bottom-less barrel of Greek savages but most at least rest assured that the money currently is put to good use in repaying the IMF, Germany, and other European institutions. If with each tranche the current Greek puppet government can be pushed to make more concessions to either make them further lose their reputation domestically and/or cut their ridiculous socialist pension and over employment then that can only be good. I personally do not give a shit anymore whether they burn German flags on the street, compare Merkel with Hitler, or just express their usual negative energy. Some people you have to force into a healthy life style of spending and saving if they are too unintelligent and/or lazy to do so themselves. If they want to be truly independent and self-governing then they need to leave the Eurozone. But before that they signed European agreements and contracts that hold them to a responsible life style because their actions affect not only themselves but the rest of Europe. I also have no more issues overlooking and ignoring our Jewish American interest groups a-la Soros & Co who try to inject themselves into a debate that is absolutely not their business. A lot of people moan every single day, a few people more or less does not make a difference.
Compare debt and equity markets preparedness between Greece Act1 circa 2010 and now.
Yes, G,F,S and Italian yields have exploded up recently to 1.5 -2.5%. LOL!
Far cry from 6+ % and global equity swoons 2010.
The onus a default today seems to fall on the troika instead of the private sector.
I believe the "play" will be to have a painful , managed default, yet stay in the EU. The risk is a desperate Greek populace and Syriza turns to Putin .
The permanance of the Euro is what is at stake here moving forward , isnt it?
Yes, G,F,S and Italian yields have exploded up recently to 1.5 -2.5%. LOL!
Far cry from 6+ % and global equity swoons 2010.
The onus a default today seems to fall on the troika instead of the private sector.
I believe the "play" will be to have a painful , managed default, yet stay in the EU. The risk is a desperate Greek populace and Syriza turns to Putin .
The permanance of the Euro is what is at stake here moving forward , isnt it?
Still don't understand why Greek not just do the reforms as his counterparts did (Ireland, Italy, Spain) ?
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Because they are savages unlike others. They know how to consume but not how to work hard. Who wants to work hard in 40 degree heat anyway? Ok savages is of course the wrong term but you get the drift. Once you get hooked to the Merc you drive around in that you afforded yourself as tax cheat or the exorbitant pension payments some afford themselves (German pensioneers can only jealously watch) it is very hard to downgrade living standards.
The Greek situation highlights the difficulty of maintaining a financial union among essentially 28 autonomous governments. The EEC is missing a fully functional political union and other key components needed to facilitate full monetary integration, e.g., a Euro Bond.
Would an exit from the Euro necessarily mean an exit from the EEC? Not necessarily it seems. Though not painless by any means, Greece could go to back to a Drachma floating relative to the Euro, but otherwise remain in the EU economic community. That would result in Greek citizens getting a politically more accessible haircut by the back door via inflation and permit some of the debt to be monetized. This would be no worse for the central EU powers than an outright default. It would simply result in different oxen being gored. At the same time it would keep Greece, for the time being at least, in the Western European orbit. The critical problem being faced now is how to maintain bank liquidity and sufficient Euro reserves to accommodate trade. That's a problem that won't go away if Greece was to return to the drachma, but it might not get much worse.
Whenever politicians are faced with seemingly intractable difficulties, the solution that offers up the least political pain has to be considered a likely candidate for implementation. If Merkel can get Schaeuble to bend over one more time, then Greece will continue to suckle at the EU teat. Otherwise I view a return to the drachma as a foregone conclusion.
Would an exit from the Euro necessarily mean an exit from the EEC? Not necessarily it seems. Though not painless by any means, Greece could go to back to a Drachma floating relative to the Euro, but otherwise remain in the EU economic community. That would result in Greek citizens getting a politically more accessible haircut by the back door via inflation and permit some of the debt to be monetized. This would be no worse for the central EU powers than an outright default. It would simply result in different oxen being gored. At the same time it would keep Greece, for the time being at least, in the Western European orbit. The critical problem being faced now is how to maintain bank liquidity and sufficient Euro reserves to accommodate trade. That's a problem that won't go away if Greece was to return to the drachma, but it might not get much worse.
Whenever politicians are faced with seemingly intractable difficulties, the solution that offers up the least political pain has to be considered a likely candidate for implementation. If Merkel can get Schaeuble to bend over one more time, then Greece will continue to suckle at the EU teat. Otherwise I view a return to the drachma as a foregone conclusion.
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I agree with that analysis. Political or not, difficult or not, even the Greeks must realize the only way to create a platform for growth are structural reforms. Even a democrat of the ranks of Obama and hardly a financial market aficionado had to remind Greece of such fact.
And a fiscal union is not gonna happen and yet most European governments understand the need for reforms and hard work after a hard and joyous party. I steadfastly believe that our Greek friends are on the exactly same page but they choose to play a dangerous game in the hopes to squeeze couple more concession out of the rest of Europe.
Canadian Prime Minister Harper yesterday put it perfectly when he asked his European colleagues behind closed doors bluntly: "How do you still put up with the Greeks?". See, the problem is not that there is a disability to reform, Spain and Portugal show perfectly that it can be done. It all comes down to ice cold calculation of perceived freebies for the Greek side and whether the term solidarity actually means something, apparently it still means nothing to the Greeks.
I honestly believe that the EU nor IMF are not paying up more even if they release the next "bailout package", after all most all the money goes to satisfy existing debt, hence it is not that the money disappears in a black hole. This will go on until either the Greeks realize there are no more benefits to be had from further games or someone on the Eurozone or IMF side turning the switch (which is less likely, unfortunately)
And a fiscal union is not gonna happen and yet most European governments understand the need for reforms and hard work after a hard and joyous party. I steadfastly believe that our Greek friends are on the exactly same page but they choose to play a dangerous game in the hopes to squeeze couple more concession out of the rest of Europe.
Canadian Prime Minister Harper yesterday put it perfectly when he asked his European colleagues behind closed doors bluntly: "How do you still put up with the Greeks?". See, the problem is not that there is a disability to reform, Spain and Portugal show perfectly that it can be done. It all comes down to ice cold calculation of perceived freebies for the Greek side and whether the term solidarity actually means something, apparently it still means nothing to the Greeks.
I honestly believe that the EU nor IMF are not paying up more even if they release the next "bailout package", after all most all the money goes to satisfy existing debt, hence it is not that the money disappears in a black hole. This will go on until either the Greeks realize there are no more benefits to be had from further games or someone on the Eurozone or IMF side turning the switch (which is less likely, unfortunately)
Why Syriza Will Blink
http://www.project-syndicate.org/co...fault-negotiation-by-anatole-kaletsky-2015-05
http://www.project-syndicate.org/co...fault-negotiation-by-anatole-kaletsky-2015-05
the is another of volly's urban myth posts.
http://fortune.com/2014/02/03/why-greeks-are-overworked-while-germans-go-home-early/
greeks work many more hours than germans.
unfortunately the economy is organized very poorly with the public sector workers draining the private sector through excessive wages, pensions and regulations and excessive debt to keep the government sector functioning.
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