Alcohol is much worse for you than you might think
- Thread starter Frederick Foresight
- Start date
So then maybe all the threads in this forum should be about sugar.
Baron
ET Founder
I agree but that doesn't mean the correlation creates accurate results. For example, years ago there was a study showing that local ice cream sales correlates with the murder rate in that area, so as ice cream sales rise, so does the rise in murders. Does that mean we need to ban ice cream? Do murderers have a craving for ice cream before they go on a killing spree? Are there certain flavors that cause an increase in the murder rate more than others? Do we need to impose some sort of tax on ice cream truck operators to curb and regulate the sales of ice cream to children? I mean, the data raises all sorts of goofy questions.
So when I see people talk about studies like the one in the video above where the doctor correlates very minimal alcohol consumption with an increased risk of breast cancer, I can't help but wonder if that's a legitimate conclusion or just another ice cream and murders outcome.
There is no way to control for all the confounds (variables) in a study involving human behavior or function. Is too much alcohol bad for you? Of course it is but what may be too much for John Doe is not so for Harry Schmo. Learn to listen to your body and it will tell you what you can and cannot and should and should not do.
Fair enough. But you are automatically assuming that the study design was flawed. It may well have been. But neither of us knows it for a fact yet.
No, but I'd keep an eye on those Good Humor ice cream truck drivers. That, or the study was an effort to show how flawed studies can be, or a least the interpretation of them. So, again, I don't know how well the alcohol study was designed and conducted, but I'm not ready to dismiss Dr. Shapiro's take until I learn more about it.
Easier said than done, especially when we hear what we choose to hear.
Yes, most people don't get past the "want".
Your ice cream example is a textbook illustration of spurious correlation and I fully agree with you in this regard. But with alcohol the story is a lot more complicated. Again, I am not referring to this clip, but after all alcohol is a toxin, plain and simple. And I am not sure anyone has convincing evidence that toxins are either good or harmless to the human body. I guess how a conversation about this is conducted is key, neither do 7 drinks a week carry you into the grave tomorrow nor will a few glasses of wine a week prolong life (as was claimed by some for decades). The danger of everything is overuse/abuse and that goes back to each individuals psyche and mental makeup.
Last edited:
I disagree. This is the putting the finger up the air and feel whether it rains or not kind of mentality. Just because it does not rain right now does not mean it does not rain today. We individuals lack a lot of holistic information, the big picture. A lot of toxins build up in the body over time and cause long term damage, invisible to the casual observer at a given point in time. Look at the current findings about covid long term effects. Researchers are just now discovering abnormally high correlations between previous covid infections and heart and brain complications in statistically relevant number of individuals.
The biggest damage done to society over the past 20 years was the screaming of pundits on social media who now have a voice but previously did not and a lot of uninformed and undereducated people are mislead by those voices. Many such voices have attempted to discredit established science and facts. So, a lot of mistrust in health science has been sown to the degree that a lot of people nowadays steadfastly believe that measuring their own blood pressure and temperature is the best way to gauge their state of health.
The biggest damage done to society over the past 20 years was the screaming of pundits on social media who now have a voice but previously did not and a lot of uninformed and undereducated people are mislead by those voices. Many such voices have attempted to discredit established science and facts. So, a lot of mistrust in health science has been sown to the degree that a lot of people nowadays steadfastly believe that measuring their own blood pressure and temperature is the best way to gauge their state of health.