I've looked at nearly every combination. Pullbacks don't follow any particular order. Sometimes they are clean. Sometimes they are not. There is no rhyme or reason to it. Nobody knows how long the trend will last, when it will reverse, or if it already has. There are clues...but that's all they are. PRICE ACTION IS NOT ROTE. The acute mind is exacting and demands precision. The market isn't hard. The mind makes it hard. The market is NOT exact or precise. Price action is often just sloppy and meaningless, yet when a trader takes a step back, the slop paints a beautiful, obvious picture.
I would add reversal patterns are known and profitable. And in fast markets, bar-by-bar price action becomes meaningful. However, the trend faders fuel the trend and become prey far more often then not. Jack over the candle stick and higher time frames are the only way to play reversals. And fast markets, sure. But when was the last fast market besides oil, lately? What else is there? TA patterns using longer-term setups, sure (triangles, H&S, wedges etc). But even these demand sufficient range, or they become useless as well.
I get why people gravitate towards oil. I get it. The best I came up with in my 12 years as a student of the markets - enter on pullbacks. The trend is your friend. That's it. There is little else. Under certain conditions, there is more. But under all conditions, there is very little except what is. Price is never wrong. Only in our minds we make it wrong. We demand order and structure. On the otherside, Goldman is lifting 500 contracts on the offer 10 ticks up the ladder, while Morgan is fading 1500 contacts a block, while some hedgefund just decided to hit the bid for 300 contracts, and maybe sell 3000 more if the price jumps up 2 ticks. It's meant to be chaos. It is chaos and chaotic, but within that, price trends.
That's really the best I can do. And Ive poured my heart and soul into this. I think some setups have merit and are worth exploring. But at the end of the day, this is my best answer at trend-following.
I would add reversal patterns are known and profitable. And in fast markets, bar-by-bar price action becomes meaningful. However, the trend faders fuel the trend and become prey far more often then not. Jack over the candle stick and higher time frames are the only way to play reversals. And fast markets, sure. But when was the last fast market besides oil, lately? What else is there? TA patterns using longer-term setups, sure (triangles, H&S, wedges etc). But even these demand sufficient range, or they become useless as well.
I get why people gravitate towards oil. I get it. The best I came up with in my 12 years as a student of the markets - enter on pullbacks. The trend is your friend. That's it. There is little else. Under certain conditions, there is more. But under all conditions, there is very little except what is. Price is never wrong. Only in our minds we make it wrong. We demand order and structure. On the otherside, Goldman is lifting 500 contracts on the offer 10 ticks up the ladder, while Morgan is fading 1500 contacts a block, while some hedgefund just decided to hit the bid for 300 contracts, and maybe sell 3000 more if the price jumps up 2 ticks. It's meant to be chaos. It is chaos and chaotic, but within that, price trends.
That's really the best I can do. And Ive poured my heart and soul into this. I think some setups have merit and are worth exploring. But at the end of the day, this is my best answer at trend-following.
