Al Quaeda buys gold stocks

[rodden]

Quote from ARogueTrader:



The gold sector is a very small sector, when you compare it to other sectors like health care, telecom, etc. Someone doesn't have to know something to move gold stocks, they just have to be buying into that sector. Because the gold market is very thin and very speculative, one large buyer into a fund could easily more the entire gold stocks sector.

It doesn't take much for gold stocks to move up or down on speculation.

You still have yet to provide any evidence of direct correlation, you theory may or may not be accurate.

What nitro said is accurate, that unless you are on the inside of a price manipulation scheme it is worthless information for traders and likely a waste of time to even bother with.

What you're saying is true - a single big fund buyer could move the market - but if you check the 5-day charts for any of the big golds you'll see that last night's buying had an urgency to it that can't be reasonably accounted for even by the customary irresponsibility with which fund managers tend to operate.
I can't "prove" my position - but then, who can "prove" anything. Even scientists never consider anything ultimately "proven" - with exceptions in the field of mathematics.

My position is based on probability - the raw material of trading. That surge in the gold sector last night was probably more than coincidence. Whether or not such a consideration is useful for trading gold stocks is a matter of personal judgement.

 

[ARogueTrader]

Quote from rodden:




What you're saying is true - a single big fund buyer could move the market - but if you check the 5-day charts for any of the big golds you'll see that last night's buying had an urgency to it that can't be reasonably accounted for even by the customary irresponsibility with which fund managers tend to operate.
I can't "prove" my position - but then, who can "prove" anything. Even scientists never consider anything ultimately "proven" - with exceptions in the field of mathematics.

My position is based on probability - the raw material of trading. That surge in the gold sector last night was probably more than coincidence. Whether or not such a consideration is useful for trading gold stocks is a matter of personal judgement.

Can't prove anything?

Why don't you just admit it was a stupid theory?

 

[rodden]

Quote from ARogueTrader:



Can't prove anything?

Why don't you just admit it was a stupid theory?

Why don't you just admit that your theory that it was just a stupid theory is just a stupid theory?

 

[ARogueTrader]

Quote from rodden:



Why don't you just admit that your theory that it was just a stupid theory is just a stupid theory?

I guess you need more evidence of the stupidity of your theory.

Al Queda is not stupid.

Since 9/11, intelligence agencies have been tracking activity in the markets very closely looking for relationships between stock price and terrorism.

If there were a major spike in buying gold stocks, that would be tracked. Al Queda knows this, apparently you don't.

If there was a terrorist event the day after such buying, the intelligence agencies would be all over the person or company who went long gold stocks the day before, likely seizing the assets until an investigation.

Al Queda is not that stupid, but apparently your theory is.

 

[Rearden Metal]

The following is a run-of-the-mill IQ test question. I have a feeling I know who here easily knows the correct answer, and who would have difficulty figuring this out:
__

If all Zips are Zoodles, and all Zoodles are Zonkers, then all Zips are definitely Zonkers.
The above sentence is logically:
True
False
Neither

 

[rodden]

Quote from ARogueTrader:



I guess you need more evidence of the stupidity of your theory.

Al Queda is not stupid.

Since 9/11, intelligence agencies have been tracking activity in the markets very closely looking for relationships between stock price and terrorism.

If there were a major spike in buying gold stocks, that would be tracked. Al Queda knows this, apparently you don't.

If there was a terrorist event the day after such buying, the intelligence agencies would be all over the person or company who went long gold stocks the day before, likely seizing the assets until an investigation.

Al Queda is not that stupid, but apparently your theory is.

I trade golds every day. The action last night was strange. My theory is just based on the probability that an unusual factor motivated the gold sector in the last hour. With the coincidence of the bombing of British interests, Al Qaeda seems a likely suspect. Granted, it's speculation - but not stupid speculation. Al Qaeda has tons of money and undoubtedly plays the markets. Al Qaeda has proven itself to be very inventive and resourceful (as you say, they're not stupid); in this global economy, finding agents to circuitously execute their market orders would be no challenge to them.

You believe that exceptional activity on the eve of an Al Qaeda event would be thoroughly investigated. Probably true - but to attract the attention of the U.S. intelligence agencies such activity would have to be quite exceptional. Yesterday afternoon's action wasn't a "major spike" it was just an anomalous spike - it made no trading or investing sense (note that all those last-hour gains were reversed in the first hour this morning). I suppose an alternative explanation is that some major fund manager came back from lunch plastered.

My basic position is that Al Qaeda trades the markets and capitalizes on its foreknowledge of its own activities. Maybe this time, maybe not - but it isn't "stupid" to suspect them.

 

[rodden]

Quote from Rearden Metal:

The following is a run-of-the-mill IQ test question. I have a feeling I know who here easily knows the correct answer, and who would have difficulty figuring this out:
__

If all Zips are Zoodles, and all Zoodles are Zonkers, then all Zips are definitely Zonkers.
The above sentence is logically:
True
False
Neither

True.

I trust I helped you out.

 

[ARogueTrader]

Quote from rodden:



I trade golds every day. The action last night was strange. My theory is just based on the probability that an unusual factor motivated the gold sector in the last hour. With the coincidence of the bombing of British interests, Al Qaeda seems a likely suspect. Granted, it's speculation - but not stupid speculation. Al Qaeda has tons of money and undoubtedly plays the markets. Al Qaeda has proven itself to be very inventive and resourceful (as you say, they're not stupid); in this global economy, finding agents to circuitously execute their market orders would be no challenge to them.

You believe that exceptional activity on the eve of an Al Qaeda event would be thoroughly investigated. Probably true - but to attract the attention of the U.S. intelligence agencies such activity would have to be quite exceptional. Yesterday afternoon's action wasn't a "major spike" it was just an anomalous spike - it made no trading or investing sense (note that all those last-hour gains were reversed in the first hour this morning). I suppose an alternative explanation is that some major fund manager came back from lunch plastered.

My basic position is that Al Qaeda trades the markets and capitalizes on its foreknowledge of its own activities. Maybe this time, maybe not - but it isn't "stupid" to suspect them.

Of course it is "stupid" not to suspect Al Queda of trying to capitalize financially on terrorism, but it is equally if not increasingly stupid to think they would make trades that in your own words are "anomalous" and thus would attract the attention of intelligency agencies, then execute a terrorist attack the very next day!!!.

Consequently, your theory that Al Queda went majorly long the gold stock market late in the day, to capitalize on an act of terrorism the very next day is stupid.

Just admit that your theory was stupid, it really is that simple.

 

[rodden]

Quote from ARogueTrader:



Of course it is "stupid" not to suspect Al Queda of trying to capitalize financially on terrorism, but it is equally if not increasingly stupid to think they would make trades that in your own words are "anomalous" and thus would attract the attention of intelligency agencies, then execute a terrorist attack the very next day!!!.

Consequently, your theory that Al Queda went majorly long the gold stock market late in the day, to capitalize on an act of terrorism the very next day is stupid.

Just admit that your theory was stupid, it really is that simple.

Do you think the U.S. intelligence agencies are investigating yesterday's trading at this very moment? If they aren't my theory is not stupid - Al Qaeda can trade and get away with it; if they are my theory is not stupid - Homeland Security agrees that Al Qaeda trades the markets.

Also, the U.S., (and I say God bless America) has great power and influence. but not omnipotence or omnipresence; their investigations can hit brick walls - they can't even find Bin Laden.. and they obviously don't know what he's up to.

Al Qaeda trades the markets - including the gold market, the currencies market, and the stock market; to think that such is impossible is willful stupidity.

 

[dgabriel]

I don't think anyone doubts that there is an arm of the govt. that investigates the markets to finds clues about possible nefarious speculation. But your thread is entitled "Al Queda buys GOld Stocks" like you are reporting a fact. If you have some solid inside information, call the Pentagon or MI5 and give them the leads.

Otherwise, you know know nothing.