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Cesko: I can't speak for V77 but you are beyond my grasp.
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June 29,2007
SouthAmerica: Reply to Cesko
Let me clarify for you what I mean by quoting some information from one of my published books:
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Quoting from the book:
"Unrealistic Expectations.
There is much evidence that human expectations tend to be linear. Most of the time, most people expect current conditions to continue for the indefinite future. It is almost an unnatural act for a man to leave home with an umbrella on a sunny day. Call it optimism, faith in the future, or just reluctance to see the party end, there is a presumption that the environment is stable. This is why cities are built on floodplains and fault lines. A similar presumption makes the gambler double his bet or the farmer plant additional crops on reclaimed land the year after a good harvest.
Whenever prosperity exists, it is natural for people to expect prosperity to continue. For this reason, much of the history of human society is a record of astonishment. Time and again, people have marginalized their affairs, rendering themselves increasingly crisis-prone.
They have gone into debt, extending claims on resources to an extreme that could be supported only if current conditions were sustained uninterrupted into the future. Time and again these hopes have been disappointed. Whenever prosperity has seemed permanent, some apparently minute change could produce astonishingly large nonlinear shifts in the organization of human society. The failure to recognize or anticipate these nonlinear transformations has been a common characteristic of almost all societies.
â¦When the dynamic and nonlinear world adjusts itself to the linear thinking used daily by governments and other institutions such as corporations, banks, insurance companies, the church, and so on, the result can be sometimes catastrophic and can translate into unemployment, inflation, monetary devaluations, market crashes, world wars, civil wars, depressions, and even chaos.
â¦Change is a fact of life, yet many people don't want to think about it because they feel threatened by it. So when change comes, it takes them by surprise. By then they can only react to it, and unless they're lucky, they suffer losses."
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SouthAmerica: If I were a linear thinker I would be following the heard â and would be talking about all the candidates that have been in the presidential race since it started months ago.
Instead of that I have been talking for more than a year why Al Gore is going to be the next US president â even tough he still has not entered the race as yet as of end of June of 2007.
I am driving both of you crazy because both of you know that I am right.
As I wrote on my book: âChange is a fact of life, yet many people don't want to think about it because they feel threatened by it. So when change comes, it takes them by surprise. By then they can only react to it, and unless they're lucky, they suffer losses."
What that means regarding the presidential election of 2008?
Letâs say for argument sake that we have the following two tickets running for president in 2008: the ticket of Al Gore/Bill Richardson representing the Democratic Party and Rudy Giuliani/Fred Thompson representing the Republican Party.
We have two completely different paths for the United States and the rest of the world depending on which person gets elected US president in 2008.
Regarding the investment world what is at stake here (based on the result of the presidential election). It would mean complete different paths for trillions of US dollars of government and private money in the next 8 years.
The election of a Republican Party âRudy Giuliani/Fred Thompsonâ would mean you put all your eggs in one basket â just buy any stock in the defense industry and you make a ton of money.
The priority would be to chase terrorists around the world and start new wars â they can start a new war against Iran and hopefully that would spread to the entire Middle East and even better if the entire mess becomes World War III.
Finally the US government would have to bring back the draft and the middle class American kids will have the opportunity to also die and get wounded as the poor American kids have been doing in Iraq and Afghanistan since 2002.
A Rudy Giuliani/Fred Thompson administration would provide for a very few people lots more tax breaks â and the rest of the population will have all their remaining benefits cut to the bone.
With a little lucky by the end of 8 years of a Rudy Giuliani/Fred Thompson administration the United States would have eliminated any laws regarding child labor (since the US has to compete with the rest of the world because of globalization, and many countries allow child labor).
I would not be surprised if the Republicans would continue reversing any laws that they donât like it â and they can go back just a little in time - about 145 years â they also can reestablish slavery in the United States.
A Rudy Giuliani/Fred Thompson administration probably would add another US$ 20 trillion dollars in debt on top of the current âMount Everestâ cumulative outstanding US government debt.
Today George W. Bushâs prestige around the world it is so low that the only country that he still has some clout it is in Albania. When only the Albanians think that you are great then you have a major problem.
When I saw George W. Bushâs popularity in Albania on his recent trip â that reminded me of a movie with Peter Falk âTune in Tomorrowâ â in that movie he is a radio soap opera actor and he moves from station to station because during his show he insults the Albanians and the Albanians go into a riot and burn the radio station to the ground. The funniest part of the movie is when Peter Falk is going through his routine on the radio when he is insulting the Albanians.
After the last trip of George W. Bush to Albania and the reaction of the Albanians towards George it is possible that what Peter Falk was saying in the movie about the Albanians it is actually the truth.
In the other hand, the election of a Democratic Party ticket of Al Gore/Bill Richardson it will mean a completely different path for the United States and the world.
The US troops would be brought home from the current wars ASAP.
The world would realize that the United States would have a president who cares about the environment and the health of our planet.
We would have a major shift in domestic policy regarding a number of things â the US government priorities would be more in touch with the needs of the American population.
Basically we would have a paradigm shift in the economy â a change for the better and smarter uses of scarce resources.
Taxes most likely would go up since there is no free lunch, and a more responsible administration would not leave the country completely bankrupt for future generations as the Republicans have been doing for a long time.
The United States reputation around the world would start to recover from the disastrous 8 years under the Bush administration.
An Al Gore/Bill Richardson administration would try to solve many of the pressing problems affecting the United States today related to healthcare, energy, foreign policy and so on.
I have no doubt that Al Gore is the best candidate available today to become the next US president in November of 2008.
In a Nutshell: you identify the best way you can the person who will become president of the US in 2008 and you make your bets accordingly â before the heard realizes what is going to happen.
If you think that Rudi Guiliani is going to be the next US president then make your bets right now and lose your shirt later.
You guys it seems to me you just react to information when it is already late and the heard is already in stampede mode.
All I can say to both of you is good luck with your strategy of reacting after the fact.
There is too much at stake not only for the United States but also for the rest of the world in the coming US presidential election of 2008 â Al Gore is a smart man and he will realize that he has to enter the race, and that he is the person with the best all around credentials for the job, and I am sure he be the winner in November of 2008.
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