Air China suspends NK flights. How NK's destruction will affect the markets?

[LacesOut]

Been giving this a lot of thought.

Obviously it will be stupendous for Asia to be rid of a nonsensical tyrant and reunify the Koreans. SK is a hotbed of talent - double the population overnight (of course it would take some years to make lasting change - but I believe it would be relatively quick)....

America could theoretically and drastically reduce military presence in the region and save a ton of dough. While China would love that I'm sure TPTB in 'MERICA would not like to see this happen. I would love to see it.

What happens to the USD in the event of
1) a very quick campaign where NK gets dominated and govt removed....
2) a messy outset of war...possible nukes used on SK (in which case you can guarantee NK gets nuked). But ultimately the same result as 1).
3) a prolonged campaign which lasts years and involves China and Russia in WW3 type conflict.

I think 3) is unlikely and certainly the least attractive option. But the plot line remains very real.

War has in recent history been USD bearish and US equities somewhat positive. Precious metals positive...commodities positive in general.

Anyone see it different?

 

[Sig]

Been giving this a lot of thought.

Obviously it will be stupendous for Asia to be rid of a nonsensical tyrant and reunify the Koreans. SK is a hotbed of talent - double the population overnight (of course it would take some years to make lasting change - but I believe it would be relatively quick)....

America could theoretically and drastically reduce military presence in the region and save a ton of dough. While China would love that I'm sure TPTB in 'MERICA would not like to see this happen. I would love to see it.

What happens to the USD in the event of
1) a very quick campaign where NK gets dominated and govt removed....
2) a messy outset of war...possible nukes used on SK (in which case you can guarantee NK gets nuked). But ultimately the same result as 1).
3) a prolonged campaign which lasts years and involves China and Russia in WW3 type conflict.

I think 3) is unlikely and certainly the least attractive option. But the plot line remains very real.

War has in recent history been USD bearish and US equities somewhat positive. Precious metals positive...commodities positive in general.

Anyone see it different?

Seoul gets destroyed by the first round of the literally hundreds of thousands of conventional artillery aimed at it 24/7 regardless of what happens afterward. Anything short of an internal coup means unthinkable loss of life and destruction which will take years for ROK to recover from.

 

[java]

You mean destruct even more than it is already destructed? I would stock up on items you use that they make. And check and make sure you are not paying extra for North Korean market quotes.

 

[Sig]

You mean destruct even more than it is already destructed? I would stock up on items you use that they make. And check and make sure you are not paying extra for North Korean market quotes.

ROK is Republic of Korea, which you probably know as South Korea. Political drama aside it's doing relatively well at the moment.

 

[java]

ROK is Republic of Korea, which you probably know as South Korea. Political drama aside it's doing relatively well at the moment.

???Yes, I have heard of ROK and South Korea and KOSPI and long legged half french girls, but the question seemed kind of funny when it asked about the future destruction and it's market implications of North Korea.

 

[toc]

Trump or US have no right to attack any country just because it conducted a nuclear test.

Learning from Saddam and Gaddafi's fate, the North Korean leader will go "all out" over the invaders and allies and make sure to inflict maximum harm.

It also looks Trump is very bored and tired being a president and is looking for a way out by going the impeachment route. He cannot declare war on any country without the approval from Congress.

 

[GloriaBrown]

Been giving this a lot of thought.

Obviously it will be stupendous for Asia to be rid of a nonsensical tyrant and reunify the Koreans. SK is a hotbed of talent - double the population overnight (of course it would take some years to make lasting change - but I believe it would be relatively quick)....

America could theoretically and drastically reduce military presence in the region and save a ton of dough. While China would love that I'm sure TPTB in 'MERICA would not like to see this happen. I would love to see it.

What happens to the USD in the event of
1) a very quick campaign where NK gets dominated and govt removed....
2) a messy outset of war...possible nukes used on SK (in which case you can guarantee NK gets nuked). But ultimately the same result as 1).
3) a prolonged campaign which lasts years and involves China and Russia in WW3 type conflict.

I think 3) is unlikely and certainly the least attractive option. But the plot line remains very real.

War has in recent history been USD bearish and US equities somewhat positive. Precious metals positive...commodities positive in general.

Anyone see it different?

There is nothing really having impact going on. Kim was even smiling at the army review. You think too much.

 

[Mtrader]

Seoul gets destroyed by the first round of the literally hundreds of thousands of conventional artillery aimed at it 24/7 regardless of what happens afterward. Anything short of an internal coup means unthinkable loss of life and destruction which will take years for ROK to recover from.

If you want to try to remove a cancer for 100%, the first thing you do is remove some of the healthy tissue around the cancer too.

The question is: how much healthy tissue do you want to risk to solve the problem? If you don't want to risk any healthy tissue, you let the cancer grow and do nothing. You can also pretend that there is no cancer...

People refer to Saddam who apparently did not have the weapons he was accused from. The problem is that we will never know what North Korea has or has not. And if one day we know, it might be too late and thousands or maybe millions can be killed. Even in the US.

Like in trading, you cannot use hindsight, you can only try to spot the same pattern in past and study it to find a solution for the futur.

 

[Mtrader]

There is nothing really having impact going on. Kim was even smiling at the army review. You think too much.

Yes, like comic Ali in Irak was smiling while on the background bombs fell all over the place.
Politics is about poker. A good poker player is somebody like Poetin.

He did not think too much, you didn't think enough.

 

[GloriaBrown]

Yes, like comic Ali in Irak was smiling while on the background bombs fell all over the place.
Politics is about poker. A good poker player is somebody like Poetin.

He did not think too much, you didn't think enough.

Did comic Ali own nuclear weapons? That is the different, lol.