AIG almost back to old levels. Like the crash never happened
- Thread starter stock777
- Start date
I think everyone listens too much to the commentators on tv. Stock at $2.45 (pre split) is still too cheap I'm guessing. When it trades 150mm shares and the float is 130mm its not just shorts covering. The same things were said about Citi at that level. C took out $5 today. $5 in AIG would be $100.
:eek:
:eek:
i hope AIG goes to 1000 as i wish to see heart attacks on the trading desk
I know this thing is said to be impossible to value. If we tried with what's available on Edgar at this point, they have $50bil of intangible net assets. With a $6bil market cap they are trading at just over 10% of book value. You would have to imagine the $180bil 'loan' from govt is included in their liabilities and/or in their equity. I think that analysts are reluctant to come out on one side or the other. I don't know what the real truth is or if anyone does, however doing a back of the envelope calculation I don't believe it goes up every day because of short covering at this point.
The CDS's that blew them up have more than rebounded for them. Let's say they sold CDS or insurance protection on HD at $200. In November they were $1000. These type of marks forced them to put up massive additional margin forcing them into illiquidity. These CDS's have not all been unwound that I know of or why would they have hired and paid bonuses to people in this area of business - that freaked everybody out. These CDS's are back to the levels that they originaly sold them at. They must have benefited from this reversion. Understandably this is going to be a small portion of their biz going forward. But it is in fact what got them in trouble, that's why I mentioned it.
If anyone has any feedback other than its a POS, please advise. Thx.
Quote from S2007S:
AIG looking for a 20% single day drop, going to be funny when the last fool jumps in and thinks its ready to run another 348% higher.....
Is that based on technical analysis, fundamentals or emotion? Seriously. When I worked in a bank and hedge funds, you couldn't just walk into the bosses office and say 'this is a piece of s4it, its going lower', because he would ask you: why?
Trading a stock, or on a day like today in the market or even the last 6 months for instance, when something goes straight down then bounces, there is a crease in your brain that keeps telling you that it may revisit the downside. I think we all have a crease in our brain reminding us what happened with AIG and that it may revisit downside. I'm just asking: why?
