AHG - Profitable Strategy for Struggling Traders

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It has been a white since I posted a chart since most of the action is now happening in my IRC channel.

For old time sakes, here is my NQ Daily Analysis.

Anek
 

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Quote from Anekdoten:

It has been a white since I posted a chart since most of the action is now happening in my IRC channel.

For old time sakes, here is my NQ Daily Analysis.

Anek
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Thanks for the chart Anek!

And yes, please don't forget about us on here!
 
Quote from Shepherd:

there is always a point where the trend reverses. AHG follows the trend and so the last entry on the trend is usually a loss depending on how tight you are trailing your stop. If following AHG the profits gained on the earlier trades in the trend will more that offset the last loser.
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Despite the fact it has been particularly trendy lately, even in these circumstances the SP shows its true colors as a mean reverting market. You can test that for yourself.

Quite easy to take say the 3 bar pattern and run a test. Without a trend direction filter it is no edge at all. With a trend direction filter it is marginal edge with tons of drawdown.

Buying breakouts is a very tough road in the SP. Low accuracy with an occasional outsize gain on just about any time frame you want to test it on.

And as an aside waiting for closes to confirm a breakout is universally a worse performer in any historical test you run.

So in answer to your question, it is not that you took the wrong breakout that hurt you, it is you decided on a philosophy of buying breakouts at all. The idea you can have winner after winner with 2 point stops buying breakouts does not hold up under even cursory scrutriny.
 
Quote from Grace101:


Did not price jerk you around for approximately three hours this very morning not knowing which way to go like some lost vagabond ? You call that a king?

One can over look this price error but one cannot over look connotations of price to porno 69... what a sick mind. Oh but remember we day-traders are viewed by society as psychopath lunatics in need of education.


Grace101
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How can the ES drop 20 points over 4 hours not violating any of the resistance zones and you call that 'not knowing which way to go'.

AHG or non AHG clearly money was to be made on the short side until 14:20

Here's some posts form a guy who trades price of a 3 min chart who was killing the short side

[11:43:25] <*> k guys ...good trading all ...will take a tenner and hld 1 for around the 1385-1390 area ...stop @ b/e ..see u all later

[12:56:29] <*> major ES supp @ 1384 ...expecting a retest of 1384

[13:35:39] <*> Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1390.75 --> + 13.25

Not to mention the short trades from Anek and other AHG traders

I see posts like yours from newly registered veterans all the time on ET and shake my head in disbelief. Post something of substance that provides education to retail traders trying to learn the ropes.

oh and if I want to see integrity from veteran traders all I need to do is watch CNBC or Bloomberg :D
 
Scenario 1)

Looking for upside continuation tomorrow morning, with resistance at ~ 1980/2000 zone. 2k looks like a juicy spot to unload longs and get back short, setting up a possible H&S.

Scenerio 2)

All shit can break loose overnight/pre-morning. And we can get a retest of the LRC Median Line which could be a good spot to get long. Less likely but possible considering the funk the market is in.
 

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Quote from Sniemiec:

Is there any way to avoid this? Maybe I'm not seeing something, any help would be appreciated.

Thanks,

n00b.

Sniemiec, Look at a larger timeframe of your chart. You will see that price found support close to 1919 at around 9:05 est. You shorted at support. I'm not an expert by any means, but from what I think I know, I would take profits at that point, not initiate a new short.

You should have been short already way before that point after the symmetrical triangle broke to the downside at 11:09 est.

For a new short I would have waited for a retracement to a trendline or a resistance level.
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Quote from BoyBrutus:

AHG log

and some good stuff at the end from yesterdays AH
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great stuff indeed..especially the last part about Anek's and other traders early experience..really encouraging..
no book will ever replace these logs..thanks for posting:)
 
attached is chart from today's NQ. got shorted out twice. First was an attempted short at TL with 3br and second was close below what looked like an M with magic tick. Looking for any helpful comments and criticisms. Much appreciated.:)
 

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Quote from einstein:

attached is chart from today's NQ. got shorted out twice. First was an attempted short at TL with 3br and second was close below what looked like an M with magic tick. Looking for any helpful comments and criticisms. Much appreciated.:)
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Einstein,

I have the same problem with you today, but on the long side. I've been working on to examine the problems. This is my preliminary conclusion:

Trading horizontal breakout only when the momentum is strong. Trading breakout in choppy markets is a loser's game.

You can see today the market is quite choppy and with little momentum for a long period of time. Stay away from breakout trade at this time.

Anyone else with additional comments?

Swingscalper
 
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