Quote from rverheyen:
My friday afternoon trades. Green lines or long entries, red lines short entries.
Comments more then welcome.
http://images.sierrachart.com/upload_2/1196628026_37_UploadImage.png
You need to develop a feel for the instrument and what it typically does. When I look at the chart you posted, I think that you are jumping the gun a bit because you aren't considering the bigger picture. Context is everything. Here's a few things you might have considered:
Setup 2:
The downleg on the left side of the chart that you shorted was the third big wave of selling in that downtrend. I'm not an Elliot Wave practitioner, but generally if you have three big surges of buyers or sellers entering a market with no sizable retracement (I consider 50-78.6 to be sizable), you have to be on the lookout for a reversal or retracement on profit taking, which amounts to the same thing for someone trading as close to the chart as you do.
Also, be careful to watch movement rate on your chart, since you use vol charts exclusively. If you look, you'll see price decelerated substantially from 15:05 - 15:10.
Setup 3 and 4:
This was a good place to look for a pullback instead of buying a breakout. Strong trend down, price slows, you get an initial wave of buying and then a strong wave of buying. A lot of times when you get a countertrend breakout like this, price will probe that previous swing high (the one made at 15:12). These are the moves that flush out impatient and undercapitalized traders.
In this case, you got flushed out long, reversed yourself, and then got stopped when the trend resumed. These are the most frustrating situations you can be in. You were right, and lost TWICE!
Setup 5:
You had a valid long, but where was your stop? I would have put mine behind the swing low that formed the second point in your trendline. Think of it this way - price was so close to that decision point that it had to sniff around there for buyers and sellers. Of course, if you realize that you also want to buy closer to that decision point, as it's a more optimal entry. For example you could have put a buy stop at the previous swing high.
Conclusion:
When I trade, something that helps me is to wonder whether I'm getting a good price. You want to get a good deal for whatever you're buying or selling, it decreases your chances of being stopped out. You need to wait for price to get cheap before you buy or expensive before you sell. You'll miss trades this way, but in the end it's a safer.
