AHG - Profitable Strategy for Struggling Traders
- Thread starter Anekdoten
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Hi Anek,
Thanks for continuing the thread. I appreciate it.
I saw your NQ 25000 volume chart you posted in another thread. I see a DB you marked on 10/24 around noon. How do you trade these bigger picture DB's ? Do you like take them with bigger stops based on the 25000 vol. chart?
Is there anyway to take these bigger picture excellent DB setups with reduced risk (similar to small risk in 1000 volume chart) ? May be something like a trendline break or some other setup in 1000 vol chart (with wind on the back from 25000 DB setup) and target the 25000 trendline break?
Thanks
DisciplineTrader
Thanks for continuing the thread. I appreciate it.
I saw your NQ 25000 volume chart you posted in another thread. I see a DB you marked on 10/24 around noon. How do you trade these bigger picture DB's ? Do you like take them with bigger stops based on the 25000 vol. chart?
Is there anyway to take these bigger picture excellent DB setups with reduced risk (similar to small risk in 1000 volume chart) ? May be something like a trendline break or some other setup in 1000 vol chart (with wind on the back from 25000 DB setup) and target the 25000 trendline break?
Thanks
DisciplineTrader
D,
There are different ways to play this.
The bigger the chart, the bigger the stop but the bigger the target, so technically you play them the same way, just adjusting car size to make up for the higher risk.
Typically when I see something interesting in the big charts I look for a harmonic entry on the smaller chart to reduce risk even further.
Remember that reversal formations on meaningful support and resistance areas are extremely powerful and this is exactly where many pros milk it the most.
Good trader friend says the little people watch the small charts while the big boys the big charts. We can get an edge while watching both, at least I think so
However, this requires the greatest patience as these special setups don't come very often.
Anek
There are different ways to play this.
The bigger the chart, the bigger the stop but the bigger the target, so technically you play them the same way, just adjusting car size to make up for the higher risk.
Typically when I see something interesting in the big charts I look for a harmonic entry on the smaller chart to reduce risk even further.
Remember that reversal formations on meaningful support and resistance areas are extremely powerful and this is exactly where many pros milk it the most.
Good trader friend says the little people watch the small charts while the big boys the big charts. We can get an edge while watching both, at least I think so
However, this requires the greatest patience as these special setups don't come very often.
Anek
Filtered time and sales
Lately I've been experimenting with only watching the tape for big orders, feel I can read the tape much better and with less distraction when I only pay attention to the big orders and exclude the little people.
After all, the small car lots are just noise.
Here is a sample of how clear price action was on the filtered tape today. Smooth as baby's butt, no pedophiliac implications intended, I do have a baby
Anek
Lately I've been experimenting with only watching the tape for big orders, feel I can read the tape much better and with less distraction when I only pay attention to the big orders and exclude the little people.
After all, the small car lots are just noise.
Here is a sample of how clear price action was on the filtered tape today. Smooth as baby's butt, no pedophiliac implications intended, I do have a baby
Anek
Hi Anek,
Can you please tell me if my scale out method is flawed?
I am taking the DB setups, which are working well. But I am trying to understand where to scale out. For some reason (may be it feels comfortable), I am doing the following way:
Taking it with 3 NQ contracts( multiples of 3). I am keeping Target1 (1/3rd out) - as 2 NQ points, T2 ( other 1/3rd out) - as 4 NQ points, T3(last 1/3rd out) - as the size of DB ( the distance from low point of DB to the middle up point).
After the T2 hits, I am keeping my stop on remaining to breakeven. And after my T3 hits, I am trying to see for a pullback and ride it till trendline breaks on 1 contract. (1/3rd size).
For example on the 10:15 EST NQ DB setup, my risk on each contract was 4.5 NQ points, with entry around 2226.
Total risk for 3 contracts was coming to 13.5 NQ points (4.5 * 3).
Total reward including my T1,T2,T3 was coming to 12.5 NQ points( 2 + 4 + 6.5 ), without including the 1 contract reentry on pullback after my T3 hit. I missed the reentry after my T3 hit.
Overall Reward : risk ratio = 12.5 : 13.5 = 0.9 : 1
And it is less than 1:1 and I was trying to get 2:1, so that when a DB works for me, it more than covers any failed DB setups.
Is my target taking scaleout method flawed? The reason is if another DB setup fails, then I loose more. So, was trying to find if taking T1 2 points, T2 4 points and T3 DB size and then after T3 is filled looking for a re-entry on 1 contract (and trail 1 contract till trendline breaks), is it it good or are there flaws.
Or do you think it is safe to keep T1 as DB size itself and scaleout like 1 or 2 contracts when hit.
Thanks
DT (DisciplineTrader)
Can you please tell me if my scale out method is flawed?
I am taking the DB setups, which are working well. But I am trying to understand where to scale out. For some reason (may be it feels comfortable), I am doing the following way:
Taking it with 3 NQ contracts( multiples of 3). I am keeping Target1 (1/3rd out) - as 2 NQ points, T2 ( other 1/3rd out) - as 4 NQ points, T3(last 1/3rd out) - as the size of DB ( the distance from low point of DB to the middle up point).
After the T2 hits, I am keeping my stop on remaining to breakeven. And after my T3 hits, I am trying to see for a pullback and ride it till trendline breaks on 1 contract. (1/3rd size).
For example on the 10:15 EST NQ DB setup, my risk on each contract was 4.5 NQ points, with entry around 2226.
Total risk for 3 contracts was coming to 13.5 NQ points (4.5 * 3).
Total reward including my T1,T2,T3 was coming to 12.5 NQ points( 2 + 4 + 6.5 ), without including the 1 contract reentry on pullback after my T3 hit. I missed the reentry after my T3 hit.
Overall Reward : risk ratio = 12.5 : 13.5 = 0.9 : 1
And it is less than 1:1 and I was trying to get 2:1, so that when a DB works for me, it more than covers any failed DB setups.
Is my target taking scaleout method flawed? The reason is if another DB setup fails, then I loose more. So, was trying to find if taking T1 2 points, T2 4 points and T3 DB size and then after T3 is filled looking for a re-entry on 1 contract (and trail 1 contract till trendline breaks), is it it good or are there flaws.
Or do you think it is safe to keep T1 as DB size itself and scaleout like 1 or 2 contracts when hit.
Thanks
DT (DisciplineTrader)
D,
It all depends on what kind of DB we are talking about but I don't like those close targets of yours, I prefer price action to guide me as to when I exit.
There are many types
- Massive formation at the LOD after heavy downside
- A little shit refusing to give up on support
- A W in the middle of the trend signifying congestion of the current trend
....etc etc.
Assuming a massive one, then the answer is be very greedy because price is severely oversold (a term I hate) and it has a very good chance of being a trend reversal.
Use a very flexible trendline to guide you and watch how price makes higher swings, and ride it for as much as you can. Ideally I want my first target to be at the very least as big as the reversal formation. After that do not exit until the trendline breaks and be aware of any upcoming major resistance points or psychological areas (NQ's 2250 comes to mind).
If it forms on a massive support area of the big charts, treat it like the Dragon Pattern once you see the two legs at support and downtrend line break enter then add on the swing high confirmation a second unit. This feels like Deja Vu because it is exactly how I played the Double Bottom on FOMC day at the 2210 area.
Once again be very aware as to where that DB formed and how significant the area is, this sentence alone will make you a lot of money as you get more experienced.
Anek
It all depends on what kind of DB we are talking about but I don't like those close targets of yours, I prefer price action to guide me as to when I exit.
There are many types
- Massive formation at the LOD after heavy downside
- A little shit refusing to give up on support
- A W in the middle of the trend signifying congestion of the current trend
....etc etc.
Assuming a massive one, then the answer is be very greedy because price is severely oversold (a term I hate) and it has a very good chance of being a trend reversal.
Use a very flexible trendline to guide you and watch how price makes higher swings, and ride it for as much as you can. Ideally I want my first target to be at the very least as big as the reversal formation. After that do not exit until the trendline breaks and be aware of any upcoming major resistance points or psychological areas (NQ's 2250 comes to mind).
If it forms on a massive support area of the big charts, treat it like the Dragon Pattern once you see the two legs at support and downtrend line break enter then add on the swing high confirmation a second unit. This feels like Deja Vu because it is exactly how I played the Double Bottom on FOMC day at the 2210 area.
Once again be very aware as to where that DB formed and how significant the area is, this sentence alone will make you a lot of money as you get more experienced.
Anek
Frustration, Risk and the Acceptance of Small Losses
Nothing works all the time, I think we can all agree with this. If you don't, time to adjust cause nothing does.
With that in mind don't bet the house on any setup because we never know for sure if it's going to work or not. However, if your trading allows the runners to run, like AHG suggests, then a loser here and there should not frustrate you, not only should the loss be relatively small compared to the winners but as I said numerous times they are necessary and inevitable in profitable trading, notice what I said, profitable trading.
Losing small is ok, don't be like the rookies who just hate to be wrong, the first sign of a real trader is when you see him/her losing quite often, albeit losing small. Why ? Because it's not about being right but about making money. Feel like a broken record but some things must be emphasized over and over again.
Hope it helps.
Anek
Nothing works all the time, I think we can all agree with this. If you don't, time to adjust cause nothing does.
With that in mind don't bet the house on any setup because we never know for sure if it's going to work or not. However, if your trading allows the runners to run, like AHG suggests, then a loser here and there should not frustrate you, not only should the loss be relatively small compared to the winners but as I said numerous times they are necessary and inevitable in profitable trading, notice what I said, profitable trading.
Losing small is ok, don't be like the rookies who just hate to be wrong, the first sign of a real trader is when you see him/her losing quite often, albeit losing small. Why ? Because it's not about being right but about making money. Feel like a broken record but some things must be emphasized over and over again.
Hope it helps.
Anek
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