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Agentina may have another hot & dry summer £¿
- Thread starter lx008
- Start date
Via Jefferies Bache
"However, "most of south eastern Brazil Paraguay and all of northern, central and eastern Argentina remain completely dry.
"Temperatures in the next five days will be above normal over Argentina."
While generally only warmer than average "by a few degrees , La Pampa will see temperatures turn much above normal over the next five days".
And the pattern "shows no sign of changing" heading into Christmas.
While hardly cause for panic, the forecast did encourage investors to inject a little risk premium back into soybeans.
At Jefferies Bache, senior oilseed analyst Anne Frick said that "it is not certain how long this ridge might hold, but while it is in the picture we will see hot, dry weather impacting central agri areas of Argentina especially, but southern areas of Brazil to some extent as well."
"However, "most of south eastern Brazil Paraguay and all of northern, central and eastern Argentina remain completely dry.
"Temperatures in the next five days will be above normal over Argentina."
While generally only warmer than average "by a few degrees , La Pampa will see temperatures turn much above normal over the next five days".
And the pattern "shows no sign of changing" heading into Christmas.
While hardly cause for panic, the forecast did encourage investors to inject a little risk premium back into soybeans.
At Jefferies Bache, senior oilseed analyst Anne Frick said that "it is not certain how long this ridge might hold, but while it is in the picture we will see hot, dry weather impacting central agri areas of Argentina especially, but southern areas of Brazil to some extent as well."
Hello Again.
Here are what i have find for that Regions:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/vci/VH/vh_browse.php ,
http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/imageview.aspx?regionid=ssa .
Kind Regards,
George Kanellopoulos.
Here are what i have find for that Regions:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/vci/VH/vh_browse.php ,
http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/imageview.aspx?regionid=ssa .
Kind Regards,
George Kanellopoulos.
¡°As of today£¨Dec 17th£©, SAM weather forecasts continue to call for warm/dry weather in Argentina and southern Brazil the next seven days, but thereafter the forecast calls for rainy weather in this region. However, if the seven-day forecast continues to hold for the next few days, it will start to look like a warm/dry weather pattern is developing for SAM (a bullish development).
That could change the outlook for soybeans most specifically, but also could result in support to corn and wheat prices as well. But a change in the weather back to more normal precip and temps in southern SAM would also have bearish implications. That will mean monitoring South American weather over the next few months, which will have a major impact on grain markets, especially soybeans. Absent a SAM weather problem, it;s likely cash soybean prices will continue to deteriorate into next fall, when the U.S. is likely to harvest several million more acres of soybeans, and add to the soybean carryout at present.¡±
That could change the outlook for soybeans most specifically, but also could result in support to corn and wheat prices as well. But a change in the weather back to more normal precip and temps in southern SAM would also have bearish implications. That will mean monitoring South American weather over the next few months, which will have a major impact on grain markets, especially soybeans. Absent a SAM weather problem, it;s likely cash soybean prices will continue to deteriorate into next fall, when the U.S. is likely to harvest several million more acres of soybeans, and add to the soybean carryout at present.¡±
"Temperatures in Argentina will reach as high as 105 degrees Fahrenheit (41 Celsius) in the next 10 days,(from Dec 20), increasing stress on plants with immature root systems, World Weather Inc. in Overland Park, Kansas, said in a report Dec. 20. The nation is the world¡¯s biggest exporter of oilseed-based livestock feed. Soybean futures in Chicago are heading for the biggest quarterly advance in a year."
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/12/20/argentina-feels-the-heat/#axzz2oUdwhcwq
"High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/12/20/argentina-feels-the-heat/#ixzz2oUeB9zM6
It¡¯s hot in Buenos Aires. So hot, that there has been a wave of blackouts this week as melting porteños, as residents of Argentina¡¯s capital are known, jam the electric grid by cranking their air-conditioners up to full blast.
This has become an annual occurrence during heat waves in the southern summer, as continuous underinvestment in the electricity system ¨C since utility rates were frozen over a decade ago ¨C takes its toll. But tempers as well as temperatures have been rising ¨C both on the streets where sporadic protests are disrupting daily life, and in the government, which has decided that the fault lies with the private companies providing the electricity, Edesur and Edenor."
http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/ne...ds-without-power-as-heat-wave-hits-argentina/
"The high temperatures which have been punishing central and northern Argentina for a week - often exceeding 35 C (95 F) - are raising electricity consumption in most homes as people try to beat the heat, a situation that has resulted in significant blackouts, many of which still have not been resolved.
The weather service forecasts that the coming days will see a sustained increase in temperatures through Dec. 25. EFE"
"High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/12/20/argentina-feels-the-heat/#ixzz2oUeB9zM6
It¡¯s hot in Buenos Aires. So hot, that there has been a wave of blackouts this week as melting porteños, as residents of Argentina¡¯s capital are known, jam the electric grid by cranking their air-conditioners up to full blast.
This has become an annual occurrence during heat waves in the southern summer, as continuous underinvestment in the electricity system ¨C since utility rates were frozen over a decade ago ¨C takes its toll. But tempers as well as temperatures have been rising ¨C both on the streets where sporadic protests are disrupting daily life, and in the government, which has decided that the fault lies with the private companies providing the electricity, Edesur and Edenor."
http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/ne...ds-without-power-as-heat-wave-hits-argentina/
"The high temperatures which have been punishing central and northern Argentina for a week - often exceeding 35 C (95 F) - are raising electricity consumption in most homes as people try to beat the heat, a situation that has resulted in significant blackouts, many of which still have not been resolved.
The weather service forecasts that the coming days will see a sustained increase in temperatures through Dec. 25. EFE"
Hello Again.
I have make a very small research and i have find the following:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/leaky_glb.htm ,
Mouse Click inside the:
Soil Moisture, then Monthly Soil Moisture Since Jan 2000 and then Anomaly,
Evaporation, then Monthly Evaporation Since Jan 2000 and then Anomaly,
Precipitation, then Monthly Precipitation Since Jan 2000 and then Anomaly,
Recent Anomalies, and inside there find the GHCN_CAMS 2m Temperature Anomaly ( C ) NOV, 2013,
From here: http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Weekly/Wwcb/wwcb.pdf ,
i read for Argentina the following:
Unseasonable warmth intensified across the region,
raising crop moisture requirements and exposing early-planted corn to possibly stressful conditions.
Weekly average temperatures were 4 to 8°C above normal in the production areas
of central Argentina (La Pampa, Buenos Aires, and southern sections of Cordoba, Santa Fe, and Entre Rios).
Most locations recorded daytime highs in the middle and upper 30s (degrees C),
with some spots in the southwest (La Pampa, western Buenos Aires, and southern Cordoba) reaching 40°C.
Drier conditions accompanied the heat, with rainfall totaling below 25 mm in most areas.
While favoring drydown and harvesting of winter grains,
conditions were overall unfavorable for summer grains and oilseeds,
particularly early-planted corn advancing through reproduction.
Farther north, heavy rain (25-100 mm) continued in in outlying farming areas from Jujuy southward through La Rioja,
including western sections of northern Cordoba and Santiago del Estero.
However, drier weather prevailed farther east, promoting the final stages of summer grain, oilseed, and cotton planting.
Weekly average temperatures were 2 to 4°C above normal,
with daytime highs reaching the middle and upper 30s (degrees C) each day.
According to Argentinaâs Ministry of Agriculture, as of December 19,
corn was 70 percent planted (versus 73 percent last year) and soybeans were 77 percent planted (75 percent last year).
In addition, winter wheat was 66 percent harvested, 6 points ahead of last year.
Interesting the South America this Year.
I do not know almost nothing for Soybeans Agronomy and to how can affect all the above them,
but seems that exist some troubles.
I would like to have and the Crop Progress & Condition Reports for more critical information.
It is very difficult all these, i guess.
I do not trade Soybeans but Good Luck lx008 to you.
Kind Regards,
George Kanellopoulos.
I have make a very small research and i have find the following:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/leaky_glb.htm ,
Mouse Click inside the:
Soil Moisture, then Monthly Soil Moisture Since Jan 2000 and then Anomaly,
Evaporation, then Monthly Evaporation Since Jan 2000 and then Anomaly,
Precipitation, then Monthly Precipitation Since Jan 2000 and then Anomaly,
Recent Anomalies, and inside there find the GHCN_CAMS 2m Temperature Anomaly ( C ) NOV, 2013,
From here: http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Weekly/Wwcb/wwcb.pdf ,
i read for Argentina the following:
Unseasonable warmth intensified across the region,
raising crop moisture requirements and exposing early-planted corn to possibly stressful conditions.
Weekly average temperatures were 4 to 8°C above normal in the production areas
of central Argentina (La Pampa, Buenos Aires, and southern sections of Cordoba, Santa Fe, and Entre Rios).
Most locations recorded daytime highs in the middle and upper 30s (degrees C),
with some spots in the southwest (La Pampa, western Buenos Aires, and southern Cordoba) reaching 40°C.
Drier conditions accompanied the heat, with rainfall totaling below 25 mm in most areas.
While favoring drydown and harvesting of winter grains,
conditions were overall unfavorable for summer grains and oilseeds,
particularly early-planted corn advancing through reproduction.
Farther north, heavy rain (25-100 mm) continued in in outlying farming areas from Jujuy southward through La Rioja,
including western sections of northern Cordoba and Santiago del Estero.
However, drier weather prevailed farther east, promoting the final stages of summer grain, oilseed, and cotton planting.
Weekly average temperatures were 2 to 4°C above normal,
with daytime highs reaching the middle and upper 30s (degrees C) each day.
According to Argentinaâs Ministry of Agriculture, as of December 19,
corn was 70 percent planted (versus 73 percent last year) and soybeans were 77 percent planted (75 percent last year).
In addition, winter wheat was 66 percent harvested, 6 points ahead of last year.
Interesting the South America this Year.
I do not know almost nothing for Soybeans Agronomy and to how can affect all the above them,
but seems that exist some troubles.
I would like to have and the Crop Progress & Condition Reports for more critical information.
It is very difficult all these, i guess.
I do not trade Soybeans but Good Luck lx008 to you.
Kind Regards,
George Kanellopoulos.
Thank you Mr.Kanellopoulos.The websites you provided are very useful.Weather market greatly depends on luck, so everyone needs lot of it in this season.
It's quite common to overestimate the size of the crop in Oct. for SA and it's also the time to revise the estimate it down in SA summer.
http://m.bisnis.com/en/read/2013122...s-hot-weather-seen-stressing-argentine-crops-
"Soybeans climbed to the highest level in almost two weeks on concern that hot, dry weather in Argentina will stress crops in the third-biggest producer.
The contract for March delivery gained as much as 0.6 percent to $13.3925 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, the highest for most-active futures since Dec. 11, and was at $13.3125 by 9:49 a.m. in Singapore. Prices rose 1.3 percent in the five days ended Dec. 20, snapping a two-week decline.
Temperatures should rise early this week, especially across northern areas of Argentina, accelerating moisture losses and increasing crop stress, MDA Information Systems LLC said Dec. 20. Moisture is declining in northern regions, especially northern Cordoba, northern Santa Fe and northern Entre Rios, it said. Soybeans lost 5.6 percent this year as the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast global output in 2013-2014 will climb to a record 284.9 million metric tons.
There is ¡°some concern about evolving heat and dryness across Argentina¡¯s soybean producing region,¡± Luke Mathews, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, wrote in a note today. The country¡¯s harvest will increase 11 percent to 54.5 million tons in 2013-2014, the USDA predicts."
It's quite common to overestimate the size of the crop in Oct. for SA and it's also the time to revise the estimate it down in SA summer.
http://m.bisnis.com/en/read/2013122...s-hot-weather-seen-stressing-argentine-crops-
"Soybeans climbed to the highest level in almost two weeks on concern that hot, dry weather in Argentina will stress crops in the third-biggest producer.
The contract for March delivery gained as much as 0.6 percent to $13.3925 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, the highest for most-active futures since Dec. 11, and was at $13.3125 by 9:49 a.m. in Singapore. Prices rose 1.3 percent in the five days ended Dec. 20, snapping a two-week decline.
Temperatures should rise early this week, especially across northern areas of Argentina, accelerating moisture losses and increasing crop stress, MDA Information Systems LLC said Dec. 20. Moisture is declining in northern regions, especially northern Cordoba, northern Santa Fe and northern Entre Rios, it said. Soybeans lost 5.6 percent this year as the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast global output in 2013-2014 will climb to a record 284.9 million metric tons.
There is ¡°some concern about evolving heat and dryness across Argentina¡¯s soybean producing region,¡± Luke Mathews, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, wrote in a note today. The country¡¯s harvest will increase 11 percent to 54.5 million tons in 2013-2014, the USDA predicts."
Hello Again.
This hour i decide to put and the following Internet Sites over here:
1) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ ,
2) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons/NAMS_precip_monitoring.shtml ( Use also the SAMS for South America in the upper left of that Internet Page ),
3) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/gl_obs.shtml ( Use also the American Monsoons in the upper left of that Internet Page ),
4) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/leaky_glb.htm .
Good Luck again.
Kind Regards,
George Kanellopoulos.
This hour i decide to put and the following Internet Sites over here:
1) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ ,
2) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons/NAMS_precip_monitoring.shtml ( Use also the SAMS for South America in the upper left of that Internet Page ),
3) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/gl_obs.shtml ( Use also the American Monsoons in the upper left of that Internet Page ),
4) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/leaky_glb.htm .
Good Luck again.
Kind Regards,
George Kanellopoulos.