Ag trade ideas

I dont really understant why this spread should be going down ?

On the statistics side, my backtests showed that its quite neutral (and volatile).

On a more fundamental basis, crusher cant crush more than their capacity, so when they have already cover all their capacity they cant do more in the sort term.
And the three markets will most likely converge to the cash prices with soymeal supported by its shortage.
I would be afraid to bet on a short trade on the crush because all the people which have already sold would need to go out of this trade because they cant deliver it.

Is is it just technical analysis ?
 
A little time ago i open spread futures positions to the following:

Long to MGEX Wheat December 2020 / Short to KCBT Wheat December 2020.

George.
 
Well, i close my spread positions yesterday after some hours from the time that opened it.

Right now that spread is around 9 pips advantage MWE.

Seems that huge drought exist in U.S.A Southern Plains, Russia, Ukraine and Argentina.

I am curious where the MWE/KCBT December 2020 can go.

George.
 
Hello Again.

I want to say that in the Price Perceptions Report:

https://www.cis-okc.com/cis_006.htm

of the Company: CIS-OKC,

and in the Publication,

Issue #1668 December 18th 2020,

exist mention to the U.S.A Winter Wheat Regions that are affected by Drought.

So, I make in the internet a research for to get more informations about that,

and I find that this Data exist here:

www.drought.gov/drought/data-gallery/us-crops-and-livestock-drought ,

and in the right side of this internet page exist the Data Link: Percentage of Crops and Livestock in Drought:

www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/AgInDrought.pdf

I hope to find useful that information.

Kind Regards,

George Kanellopoulos.
 
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