Out @ -16.5. Small gain. The R/R was becoming dangerous in soy. Looking forward to reenter later.
Ag trade ideas
- Thread starter TraDaToR
- Start date
Out @ -16.5. Small gain. The R/R was becoming dangerous in soy. Looking forward to reenter later.
I think you are underestimating the potential loss of production. We are already in a much worse crop than 2012 ( ZCZ12 touched 8$ )... The difference is there was a smaller stocks buffer at the time, but still...
My concern is on the demand side. With this highly contagious ASF spreading around in Asia and Russia, the animal feeds manufacturers may have concern about how much corns and soybeans they should buy. With a risk that ASF happening in the US in mind, the strategic choice for these animal feeds manufacturers is to buy a lower volume of crops at a time to avoid potentially inventory buildup. With that said, we will surely see corn price rise but likely in a slow fashion.
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Back in at -45.25
Sorry guys, I am out and go the other way.
06/11/2019 : Short ZC H20/K20 @ -4.5, mainly as a hedge because I was too heavily long corn.
- H/K is overvalued compared to Z/H and K/N.
- Good chance USDA won't cut yields tomorrow, especially since crop conditions appear OK ( for the acres emerged...)
- US companies are starting to buy corn abroad apparently.
- H/K is overvalued compared to Z/H and K/N.
- Good chance USDA won't cut yields tomorrow, especially since crop conditions appear OK ( for the acres emerged...)
- US companies are starting to buy corn abroad apparently.
The ag is now purely a trade-war play given that the weather play has been exhausted. If U.S. and China can reach trade agreement, then ag price will spike. The billion dollar question is, what is the probability that happening?