Ag trade ideas

BorsBamse said:
I'll barge in on your thread here with my first trade:
Long KEN19-ZWU19 @ -37.75

- Seasonals
- Stretched CoT positioning, slightly more so in Kansas vs. Chicago contract
- Spread close to all-time lows

Anything I'm missing?
More...

Liquidated half of position at 33.25
Been a tough one to hold. Better position sizing next time.
 
Pension_Admin said:
TraDaToR, did you sell your ZC position and caused the grain market to fall today?
More...

No. I still have 2 long K/N20 and U/Z20. IMO the story isn't finished. Trump gave me second thoughts with Mexico but it is still secondary to the flooding.
 
BorsBamse said:
Any thoughts on how far US corn prices can go relative to world prices?
How important is the deterioration of wheat quality? (Ie. being used to replace corn as animal feed instead?)
More...

From Tregg Cronin last week :

"We remain cognizant of FOB spreads on the rally for both corn and wheat. Going home last night, U.S. Gulf offers were in the $189.75-190.44/MT FOB range for July-September. These compared to $167-176/MT FOB in Argentina and $178-179/MT in Brazil. Ukrainian offers were seen around $176.50/MT. At some point, if the corn situation is truly dire, we will hear about South American corn pricing into the US-Southeast. In wheat, HRW FOB offers for July were seen at $211/MT with Russian at $194/MT. German/Baltic offers were up at $215-217/MT FOB, but move to a discount by September and especially October. "
 
samjimson said:
Doesn't mid crop account for like 20% of annual, drop in the pond? Last year, last I checked anyway, ending stocks were big enough to skip a year w/o much notice, tho maybe the grinders got smart and partnered with Canopy Growth and emptied stocks in 6 mo...not a bad marketing idea, hard to find a self-perpetuating market, legal one anyway
More...

I think you are right. I was just trying to find an explanation to what was happening in both CC and C curves.
 
TraDaToR said:
No. I still have 2 long K/N20 and U/Z20. IMO the story isn't finished. Trump gave me second thoughts with Mexico but it is still secondary to the flooding.
More...

Only 67% of US corn was planted as of June 2! We might experience a corn shortage!

I am seeing a consolidation caused by producers hedging the price corns while oil price is collapsing giving more downward pressure on corn price. Right now, the technical pattern is still bullish, but I don't think we will see any more upward spike until we have either more short sellers or a major fundamental news. I think we will be in a consolidation for awhile.
 
D8Kd0LXUIAAkJJh.jpg:large
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top