Take a road trip into the country, find a co-op and chat up some of the folks that work there. Preferably in the yard. You can learn volumes, both real-time and bigger picture. Those guys love to talk, and they will go the extra mile to impress you if you show a genuine interest.
Ag trade ideas
- Thread starter TraDaToR
- Start date
05/24/19 : Out @ -183 $/T. This trade initially went really well then came back and then some... The curves changed totally in the meantime.
05/24/19 : Out @ -183 $/T. This trade initially went really well then came back and then some... The curves changed totally in the meantime.
What is the relationship between London and NY cocoa, and how is it maintained?
London is supposed to represent West African origins( #1 producer Ivory Coast, Ghana ... ) and NY South East Asia. Not sure of the exchange rules, I don't know if someone can take delivery in London , ship it to NY and redeliver it on ICE US. Anyway, the relationship is a loose one. It is mean reverting on the long term but we have been at these "extreme" levels for 2 years now. Originally, it was because of some shitty beans from Cameroon in London warehouses. The ICE pdfs on their products are really informative if you need some guidance.
Popcorn anyone?
TraDaToR, did you sell your ZC position and caused the grain market to fall today?
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Doesn't mid crop account for like 20% of annual, drop in the pond? Last year, last I checked anyway, ending stocks were big enough to skip a year w/o much notice, tho maybe the grinders got smart and partnered with Canopy Growth and emptied stocks in 6 mo...not a bad marketing idea, hard to find a self-perpetuating market, legal one anyway05/24/19 : Out @ -183 $/T. This trade initially went really well then came back and then some... The curves changed totally in the meantime.
I keep an eye on the fundamentals but always in context of the crop cycles as even a bad crop year obeys the seasonals to some extent. I like to keep it simple, never been good at guessing where price will go so I just took advantage of the planting risk premium and sold puts from mid-apr thru mid-may and given the slope in price this year was cycling through contracts every couple days. Here's hoping the weather accommodates as farmers can get an amazing amount planted in a small window but they do need a chance to actually get into the fields...