Ag trade ideas

TraDaToR said:
I would say it is because of stocks and current pace of exports of SRW vs HRW, but it should come back to normal later.

Funny you bring this because I actually bought KWK19-WK19 this morning @ 2.5.
- Higher protein wheat should be in demand in the winter and spring when Russia is exhausted
- The level is low around 0.
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Out @ -11. When it is too obvious and everybody is talking about the trade, then it is probably not worth it...
 
Just went long the London / NY cocoa spread again @ -162 $/T.

- Drought threatening mid-crop in west Africa.

- Near record historical lows.

- London curve backwardating whereas NY standing still.
 
TraDaToR said:
Just went long the London / NY cocoa spread again @ -162 $/T.

- Drought threatening mid-crop in west Africa.

- Near record historical lows.

- London curve backwardating whereas NY standing still.
More...

Hi @TraDaToR

Do different regions of crop growing tend to trade on different exchanges? So is a West African crop failure more likely to lead to higher London prices than NY prices? Or is it just a case of shipping differential and you think the spread will normalize/ mean revert?
 
A bit of everything you listed indeed. London cocoa is mainly West Africa whereas NY is mostly SE Asia. There can be some physical arbitrage, because most of the low quality cameroon beans that were depreciating London last year are gone( not sure about this one ). And it should mean revert as well statistically.
 
TraDaToR said:
A bit of everything you listed indeed. London cocoa is mainly West Africa whereas NY is mostly SE Asia. There can be some physical arbitrage, because most of the low quality cameroon beans that were depreciating London last year are gone( not sure about this one ). And it should mean revert as well statistically.
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Thanks, that's very helpful
 
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