Ag trade ideas

[TraDaToR]

A lot will depend on the yield. If we go to 180 as on CIS estimate then first move is likely to be down. The export pull will be secondary during the crop year.

Since most likely there won't be any weather scare before the end of the crop development, you must be right, but I was studying some long term bear spreads and I think we are already too low historically given the tight stocks to use ratio.

 

[TraDaToR]

Long ZC Jul19/Sep19/Dec19 fly @ 2.25.

-Low stocks to use ratio makes a rebound likely on Jul/Sep
-Historically low

 

[TraDaToR]

UK Feed wheat is super expensive now, does someone has a chart of its price compared to other classes of wheat( in the same currency )? I can't put a chart of T * GBP.USD with IB...

 

[Fundaman]

 

[TraDaToR]

Thanks a lot Fundaman! Sorry but I don't know those tickers. What are LWB and BL2? ICE Milling and Feed wheat?

 

[TraDaToR]

I am tempted to go long MW or KW / Short T...Thoughts?

 

[Fundaman]

Thanks a lot Fundaman! Sorry but I don't know those tickers. What are LWB and BL2? ICE Milling and Feed wheat?

LWB is LIFFE wheat, BL2 is Matif wheat

 

[TraDaToR]

Long MWU18/Z18 @ -17.5.
- 2 ticks from full financial carry( according to my expert calculations...LOL )
- Reread point #1
- Yes I know : Optimum crop conditions, hellish downtrend but still reread point#1
- Reread Point#1 and buy! You dumbass...

Now contemplate the cost of not following my expert advice...LOL

 

[Rachmaninov]

I think the corn market is ready to go up:
- Stuff going on wheat
- Low stocks on use
- Low price/no much risk priced in
- Funds shorts

And on my humble opinion, yield could be disappointing as the corn crop has grown really fast

 

[TraDaToR]

I am already long part of the curve, as you know, Rachmaninov