Ag trade ideas

TraDaToR said:
London cocoa / NY cocoa stabilizing.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...rs-to-get-a-taste-of-africa-on-record-premium

“This has never happened before, this is extraordinary,” said Jonathan Parkman, co-head of agriculture at London-based brokerage Marex Spectron Group and who has been in the market more than 30 years. “In my entire career, I have never seen anything like this. We have an arbitrage a year forward which is not just a record, but it’s a record by a wide margin.”
 
Here is the explanation. Cameroonian stocks in London. However, The arbitrage seemed to big to let the opportunity go yesterday. I am close to breakeven this morning. Hopefully it will get back to normal 'til the end of the year. I traded this one with a 6 month target in my mind.
 
TraDaToR said:
Here is the explanation. Cameroonian stocks in London. However, The arbitrage seemed to big to let the opportunity go yesterday. I am close to breakeven this morning. Hopefully it will get back to normal 'til the end of the year. I traded this one with a 6 month target in my mind.
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I agree and to be honest I see no reason (other than the obvious of it could actually get more extreme) not to fade this. I'll probably start a position on Sunday/Monday, holding time months.
 
Hopefully you will get less heat than me as it has started to bottom. I am quite sure some big institutional money started to corner it yesterday after the Bloomberg article. Just ask yourself the question: Will it most likely be at -250 GBP or +50 GBP in 6 months? If you think the second option is most likely , you have a nice 1/1 Risk/Reward trade.
 
Based on technicals in CC right around here I’d be inclined to start seeing some resistance in NY and as such a chance for the spread to start coming in. I mean we’re like what 3SD out on a monthly?
 
i960 said:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...rs-to-get-a-taste-of-africa-on-record-premium

“This has never happened before, this is extraordinary,” said Jonathan Parkman, co-head of agriculture at London-based brokerage Marex Spectron Group and who has been in the market more than 30 years. “In my entire career, I have never seen anything like this. We have an arbitrage a year forward which is not just a record, but it’s a record by a wide margin.”
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Very nice article. I now understand why I loose so much $ in these cocoa markets. Where do you find good news on cocoa markets ? (or coffee markets ?)
 
TraDaToR said:
It appears I closed N/U 1 tick from the high( which may be the long term high ). You can't deny talent when you see it:(:mad::vomit:
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When I look on my last trades, I have very often the bottom or the top of the market.
Problem is that it's 50 % a sell the bottom & 50 % buy the bottom :(
 
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