Ag trade ideas

TraDaToR said:
You are perhaps right. I was looking to go long coffee for too long. The intraday news play was really valid though...
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You and me both. I'm waiting for the same thing you are but so far it's been a bastard to me more than once the past couple of years.
 
Just went long ZL May 18 @ 33.42.

-Rumors of congress reinstating biodiesel tax credit.
-ZL undervalued compared to ZM.
-ZL spreads trending higher.
 
TraDaToR said:
Long KC Mar 18 @ 122.8

-USDA lowered production estimates on friday.
-Funds are heavily short
-spreads are moderately bullish

Me bieng a dumbo, I missed the news and the initial market reation this morning. I believe it will continue medium term though.
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Wasn't such a bad trade finally. I should have waited more to enter. Exit today on post COT short covering @ 129.85.:)
 
TraDaToR said:
I was too soon on ZL and it is possible the biodiesel tax credit will have less consequences on the soyoil market than RINs. I had in mind a really nice news play on ZL in spring 2015 when they increased biodiesel RFS mandates, but tax cuts and mandatory mandates are too different animals...

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa...y-biodiesel-tax-credit-optimism-idUSL1N1OL2EZ
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https://www.agrimoney.com/news/morn...technical-battle-but-palm-wheat-retreat-48654

"For soyoil, prices have been supported by factors including a lower extraction rate from soybeans unveiled by US crush data for November.

At 11.40 pounds per bushel of soybeans, the rate was the lowest since the USDA started reporng the data in November 2015.

“Also rallying soyoil is expectation for Congress to reinstate biodiesel tax credit within the next week,” Benson Quinn Commodities said."
 
TraDaToR said:
Long SBK18/SBN18 @ -0.18.

- New tariffs on ethanol imports in Brazil will make the mills switch to more ethanol than sugar in the near future.
- Front of the curve( Oct/Mar ) is at historical average while May/Jul is low.
- Mar/May has started to move a bit last month.
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I am out here @-0.12. Mar/May is plunging and there is too much news about plentiful sugar lately.
 
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