Am long May RR, one of the few commodities I don't hedge cause spread in/out on options are too expensive, so I trade smaller than say corn. I believe the lows are 9.22, ten year lows. One of the problems is this is triangle that often breakouts to down side, another reason of smaller amount, had similar pattern in April 2014 and I was still a seller then. If price breaks recent lows, possible 90% retracement to 2005 lows.
Ag trade ideas
- Thread starter TraDaToR
- Start date
I agree, the triangle is sorta iffy. On first glance it has that classic descending/compressive triangle look (which these days might as well be flip a coin), but if you look at the PA on the K contract specifically it's got more of the falling wedge/3 drive thing going on.
My gut is telling me long.
My gut is telling me long.
I based system on last 9 years and all I can do with this market is go long.
Update on rice:
Still needs to clear out of this area but how many shorts do you think there are who've been waiting for a break and will cut loose quickly if they don't get it? 1000 is probably a key level. Nothing significant in ZR K7:ZRN7 yet either, but it's mostly correlated to the front.
Still needs to clear out of this area but how many shorts do you think there are who've been waiting for a break and will cut loose quickly if they don't get it? 1000 is probably a key level. Nothing significant in ZR K7:ZRN7 yet either, but it's mostly correlated to the front.
I been buying Cocoa/hedged for little while now, all I can do on Financials is sell more on retracements, unless stock market crashes, don't see how they going to make new highs. Harder to trade Rice as difficulty with options, but volume showing lows are in. But if one is long best to hedge as if market breaks recent triple bottom, how low can it go but next support is 8
I've been messing around with spreads on Seasonalgo, and I noticed that Live Cattle is really backwardated (lej17-lem17). Is supply really tight? Seasonal pattern implies higher from here but a swing from +9.5 to 0 (which is historical range for this time of year) would be a pretty steep drop.
IMO: Stay away from livestock and seasonals unless you like getting punched in the face repeatedly.
Stay away from live cattle futures until the CME fixes them. They are a work-in-progress at this point. The live cows are in room 237. Stay OUT! You hear me? Stay OUT!
