Ag trade ideas

Anyone thinks sugar (No.11) will resume it's move up? The fundamentals haven't changed in the past few weeks and demand is still on track to exceed supply this year. Now that it's corrected a bit - is this a buying opportunity?
 
I would say yes but wait until it stabilizes. Perhaps it will go around 12.5 or even lower. Coffee will be another buying opportunity at one point this year IMO.
 
What do you guys think about soybean crush in the coming months? Soybean curve is getting less bullish while meal is making a plateau and oil is already in somewhat of a bull market with strong fundamentals...
 
Morning update from one news service we get:

The commitment of traders report showed managed money through Tuesday's trade +71k corn (net short -87.1k), +19.7k wheat (net short -50.6k), -4.6k beans (net short -30.4k), +8.9k meal (net short -38.3k), and +9k oil (net long 48.5k). While they dramatically cut their corn/wheat short positions, they continue to expand their long oil short meal stance.

I personally don't have a good grasp the oil/meal relationship.
 
I know this is an ag thread, but I am flummoxed as to why crude oil is down so hard today and the S&P 500 is hanging in there fairly well. There was an article in the WSJ a couple of days ago pointing out the correlation between those two were the highest they had been in 26 years. Maybe it is because of that article the two decided to starting moving differently?
 
I just checked. The correlation between Brent and ES is 0.54. I wouldn't base any trading decision on a correlation that low...
 
Yeah, it's just in January. Here is the quote from the WSJ:

The correlation between the price of Brent and the S&P 500 stock index is at levels not seen in the past 26 years. January isn’t over yet, but over the past 20 trading days—an average month—the correlation is 0.97, higher than any calendar month since 1990, according to data from both benchmarks examined by The Wall Street Journal.
 
I didn't check the correlation but a .97 correlation look like a correlation made on a price not on variations (And you shouldn't calculate correlation on prices).

What I don't undestand is why the free fall of oil is so bad for developped stocks markets ?
 
Well, oil continues to go lower and the S&P is following it somewhat. Low volumes on the stock indexes over the past few days.

Massive snowstorm in Iowa and Nebraska today. Walked through huge snowdrifts to make it into the office.
 
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