Just went out at the worst price of -0.6 and now its flat at 0 
Any advice on how to enter or exit a position ?
Any advice on how to enter or exit a position ?
Ag trade ideas
- Thread starter TraDaToR
- Start date
Contango paradox:
I really dont understant why soybean & sugar are in backwardation/low contango with huge stocks. Who is storing these commodities with negative real yields ? Any other explanation behind this ?
I really dont understant why soybean & sugar are in backwardation/low contango with huge stocks. Who is storing these commodities with negative real yields ? Any other explanation behind this ?
Little 2 ticks loss @ -0.28.
Long ZWMAR16/Short ZWMAR15
"Coffee futures jumped sharply. Arabica coffee for March delivery rose 5.6% to
settle at $1.2220 a pound. The $11 billion coffee futures market has been in a
downward spiral this year, losing more than 40% amid abundant supplies and a
broad investor retreat from commodities.
Analysts say fundamentals remain bearish, with the prospect of a very large
Brazilian crop on the horizon for next season and "hefty" Vietnamese exports
coming as its harvest season gets into full gear, research consultancy The
Hightower Report said in a note.
The market is also entering the period when participants start giving notice
of intent to make or take physical deliveries, which often prompts financial
traders to close out their trades. With bearish hedge-fund bets outnumbering
bullish ones by nearly two-to-one, that is prompting traders to cover their
short positions.
"Whoever doesn't want to be taking or making delivery should liquidate the
position," said Rodrigo Costa, a director at Societe Generale in New York.
In other soft commodity markets, cocoa rose 1.1% to $3,377 a ton, cotton rose
0.3% to 63.12 cents a pound and orange juice was down 0.5% to end at $1.5105 a
pound.
-- Write to Carolyn Cui at carolyn.cui@wsj.com and Christian Berthelsen at
Christian.Berthelsen@wsj.com"
Traduction : We don't know.
Interesting. What's the reasoning?
Found the other USDA FAS reports released on 11/18 and 11/19:
http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/search?f[0]=field_commodities:609
Summaries:
Brazil:
Brazil’s coffee production for MY 2015/16 was revised down to 49.4 million 60-kg bags, a nine percent drop relative to a revised number for the previous season, due to below average yields and smaller size of the beans in some growing areas. Coffee exports in MY 2015/16 reached historic levels at 36.57 million bags, indicating that the 2014 harvest was not severely affected by the drought in Minas Gerais and São Paulo. Carry-over stocks from crops prior to 2014 also supported the steady flow of exports. Carry-over stocks for MY 2015/16 are projected down at 5.2 million bags.
Brazil: Coffee Semi-annual
Indonesia:
Indonesia is experiencing a strong El-Nino phenomenon. Despite dry weather, total production increased by approximately 20 percent (10.605 bag GBE) over 2014/15. This is led by Robusta production, which managed to avoid the worst of the El Nino dryness in 2015/16. The most significant declines in the 2015/16 production period will be experienced amongst Arabica growers, whose main production/harvest period coincided with unusually dry weather. Post will continue to follow the progress of Arabica production/flowering and will report on potential Arabica declines in 2016/17 in its next report. Post expects MY 2015/16 coffee exports will increase to approximately 8.08 million bags GBE. Increased exports are the result of strong Robusta production, a weakened Rupiah (vis-à-vis the dollar) and declining Robusta prices.
Indonesia: Coffee Semi-annual
Columbia:
Colombian coffee production exceeded expectations as El Niño weather impacts were minimal. Post is revising projections from 12.5 to 13.3 million bags (1 bag = 60 kilograms unless otherwise noted) green bean equivalent (GBE) in marketing year (MY) 2014/15. Despite indications that El Niño drought conditions may worsen in 2016, the negative impact on production could be marginal. Thus, Post forecast for MY 2015/16 is revised upward from 12.7 to 13.4 million bags GBE.
Colombia: Coffee Semi-annual