Ag trade ideas

i960 · Nov 10, 2015

Rachmaninov said:
Dumb money can be pretty strong, imagine your shorted the NASDAQ in 1998 when dumb money was investing...
I believe strongly in the Keynes quotation:
"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"

Well I guess my point was that it sets itself up for a scenario of crowdedness and the usual line of predatorial large traders who show up for that.

TraDaToR · Nov 10, 2015

TraDaToR said:
Short Apr / Long Jun16 Hogs @ -7.9

Out @ -11.

That was a good long term trade. I was considering letting half the size run but hogs are already oversold and this spread at historical levels for a Nov 10th...

TraDaToR · Nov 10, 2015

TraDaToR said:
Short Mar/ Long May Oats @ -1 following front spread false inversion.

Managed to get out at average -1 for a scratch( -1.75 yesterday and -0.25 today ).

londonkid · Nov 10, 2015

Anyone trading cotton I am hanging by a thread lol.

Seriously though anyone trading sugar, cocoa, coffee flys on ICE?

TraDaToR · Nov 10, 2015

Yes. We trade all of these products, not specifically flies though.

Do you have a specific interest in softs?

londonkid · Nov 10, 2015

TraDaToR said:
Yes. We trade all of these products, not specifically flies though.

Do you have a specific interest in softs?

The bulk of my trading at the moment is energy spreading. I am looking to add softs to my repetoire. I prefer spreads with 3+ legs hence looking at flys.

i960 · Nov 10, 2015

londonkid said:
The bulk of my trading at the moment is energy spreading. I am looking to add softs to my repetoire. I prefer spreads with 3+ legs hence looking at flys.

I have a sugar fly open right now but one thing I'll mention is ICE has no native fly support - you'll have to use 2 calendars which means you may have a small amount of slippage. Other than that it's trading like anything else. I think a lot of us attempt to use seasonality and other measures. Myself I also trade the softs outrights. Don't limit yourself to just NYBOT either - London Cocoa and London Sugar also get volume and can be spread against NYBOT (not natively though).

londonkid · Nov 11, 2015

i960 said:
I have a sugar fly open right now but one thing I'll mention is ICE has no native fly support - you'll have to use 2 calendars which means you may have a small amount of slippage. Other than that it's trading like anything else. I think a lot of us attempt to use seasonality and other measures. Myself I also trade the softs outrights. Don't limit yourself to just NYBOT either - London Cocoa and London Sugar also get volume and can be spread against NYBOT (not natively though).

Thanks for the heads up. I usually let the autospreader take care of flys. None of the energy flys are native either - at least I have yet to find one.

Rachmaninov · Nov 11, 2015

Have you sucess in focusing your trading in flys ?

@Short FEB16 rapeseed
Everything went down and rapeseed is late on the way down

londonkid · Nov 11, 2015

Rachmaninov said:
Have you sucess in focusing your trading in flys ?

I don't trade a lot of flys but yes they are a good start point in looking at multi leg spreads. I look at and analyse the whole strip and use the native spreads as building blocks. Most of what I do is provide liquidity to others who want to get business done.