Ag trade ideas

When you say scalp, it means short term or a tight stop loss ?

I agree with being long close expiries and short longer term expiries in the US markets.
However, with such enormous stocks, I dont understant why we dont a large contango to pay for storages ?
 
I mean really short term. If there is no reaction to the guy chasing delivery in spot Nov, I close. Apparently, the demand in soybeans is quite strong and stocks are not that large short term. Brazil has really tight stocks which makes US cheaper right now and 2 weeks were really large export Wise in October. There have been a few articles on DTN about the Under estimation of demand in soy.
 
Dumb money can be pretty strong, imagine your shorted the NASDAQ in 1998 when dumb money was investing...
I believe strongly in the Keynes quotation:
"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
;)
 
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