Ag trade ideas

Rachmaninov · Nov 2, 2015

It was 11.5 % a week ago, but 6.25 % today. But on all my capital not on 2015 profits.

TraDaToR · Nov 3, 2015

Long Dec/ Short Feb Hogs @ -3975.

Rachmaninov · Nov 3, 2015

I wouldn't do that cauz:
https://www.seasonalgo.com/system/multi-analyze/builder/HEG16-HEZ15/SELL/2015-11-18/2015-12-18/5/1Y
Why do you short the contango ?

TraDaToR · Nov 3, 2015

Long Mar / Short May Cotton @ -0.64.

I am trading the exact seasonal window you are showing.

Rachmaninov · Nov 3, 2015

@TraDaToR but the window begin in 10 days, currently the seasonality is the other way

Rachmaninov · Nov 3, 2015

Short rapeseed MAY16/long soybean MAY15 on
high soybean exports in US
higher canola production (+2-3 MT ! )
high spread level

TraDaToR · Nov 3, 2015

Rachmaninov said:
@TraDaToR but the window begin in 10 days, currently the seasonality is the other way

Yep, but it was oversold. There was kind of a support on the spread @ -4 and on Z outright @ 58.

TraDaToR · Nov 3, 2015

Rachmaninov said:
Short rapeseed MAY16/long soybean MAY15 on
high soybean exports in US
higher canola production (+2-3 MT ! )
high spread level

Do you hedge currency changes for this?

Rachmaninov · Nov 3, 2015

Yes. But maybe hedging 100 % is not the best solution because currencies impact spreads.
Hedging part of the spread value should lead to a lower volatility on the spread.

TraDaToR · Nov 5, 2015

Short Mar/ Long May Oats @ -1 following front spread false inversion.