Ag trade ideas

Rachmaninov said:
I mean the seasonality says that contango should increase ?
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seasonally spreads are bullish
contango decreases (spread tightens)
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TraDaToR said:
decrease. Bull spread. Quite reliable over the last 30 years.

Damn, it' s the second time I get killed on those false short squeeze on robusta...
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Yeah man, coffee definitely is a headfuck right now. Frustrating to say the least.
 
I've been having decent luck on this Sugar fly. Got in at 0.28 (although I used 2 calendars to do it as there's no native fly market from what I can tell, or maybe just IB crap).

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Turns out I'm wrong about SB vs W...

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What I don't understand is why there's no relief between CC and C. Nobody trades EC - it has no volume and is a dead contract, whereas there's definitely significant volume in London Cocoa.

Interesting to note that there's relief between KC and RC (D) here. Good luck if your broker actually recognizes it.
 
TraDaToR said:
Long Nov/Short Jan Robusta @ -8.

"1058 GMT Coffee traders remain skittish about the possibility that a market
player may try to squeeze the November robusta contract following a similar
scenario in July. "Short squeezing" occurs when investors are forced to deliver
contracts they held as part of a bet on falling prices. This in turn triggers a
buying frenzy as they scramble to buy out of the contract, causing the price to
skyrocket. In a market report last week, Rabobank noted the "very real risk" of
another major long position, which could push the contract's premium up to $150,
would likely keep certified stocks high. (katherine.dunn@wsj.com) "
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Out @ -26. Ouch:(
 
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