Ag trade ideas

Going to buy mwz-h (@-17.00)
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Seasonality is up for september (although it didnt work good for hrs and hrw lately). Harvest progress is ahead of 5-year average.

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It looks like seasonal move starts often after harvest is near 80% complete, so it's the time

also we are near historical lows (looks like it's near full carry there)
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A good laugh waking up:

"0456 GMT [Dow Jones] BMI Research expects Asian cocoa consumption to
continue to disappoint consensus expectations over the coming months and that
the global cocoa market will ultimately return to surplus after 2017. It also
thinks global coffee prices will peak in 2015 before averaging lower in the
coming years. BMI adds that weakness in Asian demand will persist for several
reasons--Chinese growth slowing; the China crackdown on bribery that, among
other things, reduced the giving of imported chocolate as gifts; and limited per
capita consumption growth. "We expect similar consumption weakness in Europe...
Between them, Asia and Europe make up the majority of the global cocoa market,
contributing to our view that global consumption growth will be weak over the
coming quarters," says BMI. (lucy.craymer@wsj.com;Twitter: @lucy_craymer)"
 
Maybe a good short term idea. That was written 5 days ago
"Look for a spot to bull spread Sept/Dec meal next week after open interest from the Sept options comes off. Buy a break into the 7.00 to 9.00 area on Sept/Dec or buy the Sept/Oct/Dec butterfly around 3.50."

Don't understand the reasons, but it looks like the guy knows a lot about basis thing. his previous idea was good, i posted it a month ago here

spread and butterfly are on the required levels
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@Vyki
Nice article.
But I wonder if index fund should be spotted in the CTFC non commercial spreading open interest because they do spread orders but they dont have spread open interest (they are always long).
 
Rachmaninov said:
But I wonder if index fund should be spotted in the CTFC non commercial spreading open interest because they do spread orders but they dont have spread open interest (they are always long).
More...

kinda good notice, i don't know what to say
 
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