Ag trade ideas

Limit down on feeder cattle today. I had a person short a September contract a few weeks ago. I thought for sure it was going to bounce off of $206, but then we blew through that support level.
 
TraDaToR said:
I am with you on KWZ/WZ @ -3.75.;)
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@ -10
I get raped by this one.
I still dont get why KW should 10 cts/bu cheaper than ZW.
DEC16 spread makes sense but nearby expiries are strange, any explanation ?
(Funds are unusually long on CBOT and short on KW)
 
Rachmaninov said:
I get raped by this one.
I still dont get why KW should 10 cts/bu cheaper than ZW.
DEC16 spread makes sense but nearby expiries are strange, any explanation ?
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Maybe coz of tighter srw supply and lower wheat export because of higher price (hrw export is near 45% of production, srw is near 30%, so drop of export impacts on kansas more)
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Rachmaninov said:
@ -10
I get raped by this one.
I still dont get why KW should 10 cts/bu cheaper than ZW.
DEC16 spread makes sense but nearby expiries are strange, any explanation ?
(Funds are unusually long on CBOT and short on KW)
More...

I am still in. It bounced back a little today so far. I don't know for this one. I thought soft red quality problems had been priced in at mid summer and seasonals would kick in earlier.
 
Rachmaninov said:
With the current front months in backwardation, I am afraid of beeing long contango.
Maybe I will trade the butterfly -JAN + 2 MAR - MAY
Soybean curve is really messy currently
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With global deleveraging we are witnessing and soy plunge in the abyss, it should work. Otherwise if commercials continue to push the front spreads inverted I will convert it in a + Nov -2Jan + Mar...
 
speaking about exports
you can see the decline of hrw export is bigger. So demand is lower. Unfortunately, i've thought 'bout that after i've got stopped out again.
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