Ag trade ideas

[Vyki]

kinda strange f. curve (mgex wheat)

 

[FroggerMan]

Vyki, Your data is incorrect. Here are yesterday's settlement prices: http://www.mgex.com/documents/20150811.pdf

 

[TraDaToR]

So new position . Short Mar / Jul 16 soyoil @ 0.04

Out @ -0.30 after WASDE.

 

[thefuturestrader]

Wow, grains are bloody red today. USDA raised yields way over expectations.

 

[TraDaToR]

Short Mar/May 16 Cotton @ -0.17 on seasonals
...

Out @ -0.16 for a 1 tick loss.

Bullish WASDE while the seasonal window is almost closed.

 

[Vyki]

Bullish WASDE while the seasonal window is almost closed.

could u plz show seasonal?
afaics it's not closed.

vice versa

 

[TraDaToR]

I use the same software as you so you are right, the seasonal window is not closed ( in 1 month ) but I have been in it for 5 months and this spread basically went nowhere...And I think this WASDE will create a little bullish pressure for rest of the seasonal window...

 

[thefuturestrader]

Grains got hammered again after the USDA report yesterday. Anyone looking at the ZCZ15 to ZCZ16 spread? Looks to me like it might be a buying opportunity. Can't go too much further down in terms of carry, I would think.

 

[Vyki]

Can't go too much further down in terms of carry, I would think.

why? carry is something like 6 c/month, so for an year it will be near 70

 

[TraDaToR]

Long Sep / Short Nov Robusta coffee @ -12 as a propagation of what is happening in front month Jul. Whether it is because of El Nino in Vietnam or simply the roll( Just read this from a specialist... ), there is no reason it wouldn't affect Sep as well in due time. Plus the risk is really assymetric here...

Out half of it @ -12 for a scratch. Still holding half of it in case the commodity house that triggered Jul move still needs a bit in Sep. By the way, does someone know who it was?